HBAR is running out of time. The token is losing almost 2% in the last 24 hours and about 10% over the week. Meanwhile, the price of HBAR has broken through several short-term support levels and is now hovering around $0.12.
This level is crucial. HBAR is just above 1% compared to a breakdown zone that could drag the price down to $0.10. A similar movement would mean a drop of 12%-13% from current levels. However, a bullish signal is still holding the structure up. If it were to falter, the decline could accelerate.
Large investors are stepping away, weakening the scenario.
The main source of pressure comes from the behavior of large holders of HBAR.
This is evident through the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which monitors the inflow or outflow of 'big money' by combining price movement with trading volume. When the CMF is above zero, large buyers are active. If it falls below zero, distribution is taking place.
For HBAR, the CMF has worsened drastically. Since December 7, the CMF has fallen over 400%, moving sharply into negative territory. Previous retracements had nonetheless kept the CMF positive, meaning buyers were absorbing the selling pressure. Now, however, that support is no longer there.
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There is also a clear bearish divergence. Between October 10 and December 14, the price of HBAR marked higher lows, while the CMF recorded lower lows. This indicates that the recent price stability was not supported by strong demand from large investors.
In simple terms, the price has tried to hold while large capitals exited quietly. This imbalance makes the price of HBAR vulnerable.
A bullish signal is still maintaining support.
Despite the weak outlook on the large investor front, a momentum indicator continues to flash a bullish signal.
This is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures the strength and speed of recent price movements. It helps to identify when selling pressure may be coming to an end. Readings close to 30 usually suggest oversold conditions.
On the daily chart of HBAR, the RSI has formed a bullish divergence. Between November 21 and December 14, the price of HBAR marked a lower low, while the RSI marked a higher low. This is a classic bullish divergence and often signals a possible trend change.
P.S. The price of HBAR is in a clear bearish trend, with a loss of over 48% on the 3-month horizon.
This tells us that sellers are still pushing the price down, but with less and less strength. The decline continues, but the seller-driven momentum is weakening. At this moment, this RSI divergence represents the only remaining bullish impetus for HBAR.
Is the price of HBAR breaking down or reversing?
The price movement will define the final outcome. HBAR is trading below a descending trendline that has blocked every attempt at a bounce in recent weeks. At the same time, the price is on a Fibonacci support based on the trend, near $0.12. This line represents the base of the descending triangle figure, completed by the descending trendline.
This zone is the last line of defense.
If $0.12 were to decisively give way, the next major support is near $0.10. Such a decline would confirm a breakdown of 12%-13% and prolong the bearish trend.
To stabilize, the price of HBAR must reclaim $0.13. This level coincides with a fundamental Fibonacci retracement zone and would signal the return of buyers.
A more convincing change would only occur above $0.13. In that case, the price would return above the descending trendline and the structure would shift from bearish to neutral.
