#BTC Market Analysis: Liquidity Disturbances Under Japan's Interest Rate Hike Expectations
BTC fell yesterday, not merely due to a technical correction, but as a result of macro disturbances stemming from rising expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.
The current market pricing for a December interest rate hike in Japan is approaching 80%, which could trigger the unwinding of yen carry trades and create a phase of pressure on risk markets, including crypto assets.
Historical experience shows that liquidity tends to be weak at the end of the year, and any unexpected policy signals can easily amplify volatility.
In the short term, BTC faces liquidity repricing pressure, but such shocks are usually more phase-specific rather than indicative of a trend reversal.
Strategy: Before any policy is implemented, control positions and leverage, with a focus on the Bank of Japan's meetings and Federal Reserve policy guidance, waiting for medium-term opportunities after volatility is released.
