1. Macroeconomic Environment & Risk Sentiment Overview
1.1 Yield Curve and Interest Rates & Liquidity Expectations & Central Bank Expectations
• U.S. 10Y Treasury: Current value ≈ 4.18%–4.19% (latest market reference), fluctuating around ~4.14–4.20% during the week. Trading Economics

• U.S. 2Y Treasury: Current value ≈ 3.52%–3.53%, with the short end maintaining around ~3.5%, the curve is relatively flat but still watching for inversion/spread changes. http://Investing.com

• Liquidity / Central Bank Actions: The Federal Reserve has released an Implementation Note and instructed the New York Fed to execute Reserve Management Purchases (RMP): starting short-term bond purchases from 12/12 (first month arrangement totaling about $40bn, gradually announcing monthly/schedule), this is a core variable for recent short-term liquidity and market pricing. Federal Reserve +1

1.2 Inflation & Employment / Growth
•Inflation is gradually falling but still significantly above the 2% target; the employment market remains generally robust, leading the Fed to be cautious about "when and how fast to cut interest rates". The market has partially priced in "gradual rate cuts" while also amplifying sensitivity to operational details. Federal Reserve

1.3 Stock Market and Risk Appetite / Liquidity Preference
•Under the influence of the Fed's RMP and news from several industries (semiconductors, AI chips), funds have shown short-term redistribution: broad-based + defensive sectors are relatively stable, while growth/technology is highly sensitive to news and has increased volatility (there are also signs of short-term funds flowing back to money market funds/short-term debt). Investing.com+1

1.4 Volatility / Fear Index & Cryptocurrency Market Sentiment
•VIX (Cboe): approximately 15–16 (latest point ~15.7), maintaining a medium-low level but reacting quickly to sudden news. http://cboe.com

•Crypto Fear & Greed: Sentiment remains cautious, with official/mainstream indicators showing a "Fear" range (≈26–30), and short-term sentiment in the crypto market is weak and influenced by leverage/liquidation events. alternative.me+1

Summary in one sentence: The Federal Reserve's RMP adds short-end reserves to become the market focus—short-end liquidity tools and industry (especially chips/AI) news drive short-term asset differentiation, with the market primarily focused on "event-driven + cautious positions". Federal Reserve Bank of New York+1
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II. Core Asset Inventory (Stocks & Coins)
2.1 US Broad Market Index ETFs: VOO & QQQM
•VOO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF): recent close ≈ $626–632 (latest available intraday/closing reference), short-term fluctuating in the 625–634 range. Investing.com+1

•QQQM (Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF): Its technology weight leads to higher short-term volatility, with recent values around $252–259 (recent intraday range).

2.2 Key Cryptocurrency Assets: BTC / ETH / SOL / HYPE / BNB
•BTC (Bitcoin): latest close ≈ $88k–90k (12/14–12/15 intraday fluctuations; Investing data shows the range on 12/15 was ~88.1k–89.4k), significantly affected by leverage liquidations and macro news in the short term. Investing.com+1

•ETH (Ethereum): recent value ≈ $3.06k–3.12k (12/14–12/15), with large on-chain holders and derivatives liquidity being short-term influencing factors. Twelve Data

•SOL (Solana): recent value ≈ $130–133 (short-term fluctuations). http://Investing.com

•HYPE (Hyperliquid): Mainstream trading platforms (CoinGecko / Coinbase / Kraken) show approximately $28–29 range, but this is a high-volatility, liquidity/speculation-sensitive token. CoinGecko+1

•BNB (Binance Coin): recent value ≈ $876–896 (range fluctuations), recently fluctuating in the 870–900 range. http://Investing.com

2.3 Technology / AI / Cryptocurrency Related Assets
•TSLA (Tesla): recent close ≈ $446–459 (recent range), driven by car sales, costs, and product cycles influencing short-term rhythm. http://Investing.com

•NVDA (NVIDIA): recent close ≈ $175–185 (weekly fluctuations); the market continues to focus on the follow-up of H200 exports to China / capacity expansion (media and regulatory attention coexist), being the biggest catalyst/risk point for recent semiconductor and AI sectors. Investing.com+1

•META (Meta Platforms): recent close ≈ $640–650, with AI and advertising performance still being key. http://Investing.com

•GOOG / GOOGL (Alphabet): recently fluctuating in the ≈ $309–314 range, influenced by advertising and regulatory news. http://Investing.com

•CRCL (Circle Internet Group): Due to compliance progress in the Middle East (ADGM/region) and USDC internationalization themes, stock prices have shown significant fluctuations recently (recent close approximately $83–88 seen at multiple market sites). http://Investing.com

•HOOD (Robinhood): recent value ≈ $124 (range fluctuations), with trading volume/product actions influencing short-term trends. Robinhood

•COIN (Coinbase): recent close ≈ $267–275 (recently), with actions on India/internationalization and listings being short-term catalysts. http://investor.coinbase.com

2.4 Expected Assets (PreStocks)
•Anthropic / xAI / OpenAI PreStocks (Solana: Pren1FvF… / PreC1Kt…): These continue to belong to speculative assets with high Beta, significant contract/custody and liquidity risks; contract addresses, custodians, and unlocking terms must be verified before trading.

Summary in one sentence: Broad-based and leading stocks are showing short-term differentiation under the dual drive of "RMP (short-term liquidity) + chip/AI policy news"; cryptocurrencies maintain high volatility and are dragged down by leverage liquidations, PreStocks and small coins are highly speculative. Federal Reserve Bank of New York+1
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III. Key Data Sections
3.1 VIX (Fear Index)
•VIX ≈ 15–16 (latest point ~15.7), medium-low but sensitive to events. http://cboe.com

3.2 US Treasury 10Y & 2Y
•10Y ≈ 4.18%–4.19%; 2Y ≈ 3.52%–3.53% (latest short-term observation). The curve remains highly sensitive to Fed tools and inflation expectations. Trading Economics+1

3.3 US Dollar Index DXY
•DXY ≈ 98.3–98.5 (recently/daily range), with slight pullback fluctuations this week. http://Investing.com

3.4 Liquidity (M2 & RRP / RMP)
•M2 (latest available monthly): Reference October 2025 data ≈ $22.30T (22,298.1bn) as the background liquidity base. http://Investing.com

•RRP / RMP: The New York Fed has announced the RMP schedule and has begun execution since 12/12 (the first round includes billions of dollars in short-term bond purchases, totaling approximately $40bn for the first month); this operation is changing the short-end reserve distribution and overnight interest rate structure. Federal Reserve Bank of New York+1

3.5 Crypto Fear & Greed
•Index: ≈ 26–30 (Fear), with short-term market sentiment being cautious. alternative.me+1

3.6 Bitcoin / Gold Ratio
•Gold (Spot) ≈ $4,306–4,307/oz (12/15 quote); BTC ≈ $88k–90k → BTC/Gold ≈ 20–21 (recent value), indicating that BTC maintains a high volatility premium relative to gold. Trading Economics+1

Summary in one sentence: From the data perspective—RMP changes the short-end supply structure (short-end interest rates, RRP/ON-RRP impact), coupled with industry news (especially H200/NVIDIA) and crypto leverage effects, the short-term market is primarily driven by liquidity and events. Federal Reserve Bank of New York+1
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IV. Top 10 Key News in the Past 24 Hours (Ranked by Impact, Brief Summary)
1. New York Fed / Fed: RMP (Reserve Management Purchases) launched on 12/12 and is being executed according to schedule (totaling about $40bn for the first month), and the short-end liquidity structure is being passively reshaped. (Core of policy and market liquidity). Federal Reserve Bank of New York+1

2. NVIDIA related: Multiple Reuters/media reports show strong demand for H200 in China, and the company is considering increasing H200 production; this issue has sparked inquiries from Congress and concerns regarding the supply chain. (Significant impact on NVDA and the global semiconductor chain). Reuters+1

3. Bitcoin fluctuating in the 88k–90k range, with the market sensitive to leverage and liquidations (a number of recent market analyses and exchange quotes). (A direct reflection of crypto sentiment and liquidity). Investing.com+1

4. Gold continues to maintain around $4,300/oz, supported by safe-haven demand and policy operations (RMP) together. Trading Economics

5. The UK announced that it will officially promote a regulatory framework for crypto assets starting in 2027 (clarification of the long-term regulatory path), affecting industry compliance expectations. Reuters

http://6.Circle (CRCL) compliance/license progress in the Middle East has been continuously reported, with USDC internationalization and regional settlement themes attracting attention. http://Investing.com

7.Coinbase (COIN) continues to take action in India/internationalization, with the resumption of registration and the promotion of fiat channels being long-term positives followed by multiple media outlets. http://investor.coinbase.com

8. Multiple investment banks/institutions have commented on the nature and long-term impact of the Fed's RMP, and there is debate among academia and the market about whether it amounts to "de facto quantitative easing." Bloomberg+1

9. Asian stock markets opened under pressure due to uncertainties in the technology sector (media/Bloomberg/Reuters intraday news). SWI http://swissinfo.ch

10. Solana chain and small tokens (such as HYPE) continue to see localized fluctuations/unlocking and speculation events, highlighting contract and liquidity risks. CoinMarketCap+1
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V. Recommended Strategies + Overall Summary
Recommended Strategies (Short to Medium Term)

•Maintain position flexibility, build positions in batches: In the window where RMP has just launched and operational details are still being digested by the market, it is recommended to gradually build positions in broad-based (VOO) and NASDAQ (QQQM) while retaining cash to respond to pullbacks. http://Investing.com

•Short-end/safe-haven hedging: Small position allocation in short-term treasury bonds/money market funds or gold ETFs to hedge against short-end interest rates and safe-haven sentiment (RMP will directly affect overnight/short-term supply). Federal Reserve Bank of New York

•Technology/AI (NVDA, etc.): If demand for H200 to China is confirmed as continuous orders, it is a fundamental positive; it is recommended to gradually build positions after the news is fully digested by the market and orders are confirmed, and to set clear stop-loss limits. Reuters

•Cryptocurrency (BTC/ETH): Maintain small positions in BTC/ETH as volatility exposure; avoid or be extremely cautious in using leverage or perpetual positions; HYPE, PreStocks, and presales on Solana are high-risk speculation, only keep small amounts and strictly verify contracts/custody. Investing.com+1

•Event-driven trading (CRCL/COIN/HOOD): Utilize news of compliance, listings, and regional expansions for short-term trading, but long-term allocation must observe profitability paths and regulatory stability. Investing.com+1
Key Trigger Events to Watch (Next Week)

•Follow-up execution details of NY Fed RMP (actual purchase volume, frequency, counterparty reactions); Federal Reserve Bank of New York

•Orders for NVIDIA H200 and follow-up inquiries and responses from Congress/regulators (will affect semiconductor supply and demand and valuations). Reuters+1

•Crypto leverage/liquidation data and capital flows from exchanges (affecting BTC/ETH intraday volatility); http://Investing.com

•Circle / Coinbase's compliance and business progress in the Middle East and India (affecting USDC internationalization and transaction volumes). Investing.com+1

Overall Summary (In One Sentence)
Under the dual influence of "the Fed using RMP to supplement short-end reserves" and "industry/geopolitical (represented by NVIDIA H200) and crypto leverage events", the market is showing a pattern of event-driven and liquidity redistribution in the short term: prioritizing risk control, building positions in batches, and increasing positions after event verification, with speculative PreStocks/small coins only using very small positions and strictly verifying contracts and liquidity. Federal Reserve Bank of New York+1
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Main Sources (Excerpt): Federal Reserve (Implementation Note) / New York Fed (RMP statement). Reuters (NVDA/H200, UK crypto regulation), Investing / TradingEconomics / Yahoo Finance / TwelveData (bonds, ETFs, market quotes), CoinGecko / CoinMarketCap / Coinbase / http://Alternative.me (crypto prices and sentiment). All data is based on publicly available market quotes and media reports from December 14, 2025 to December 15, 2025. Trading Economics+4 Federal Reserve+4 Federal Reserve Bank of New York+4

#RMP #Fed #NVDA #BTC #Gold #CryptoFearAndGreed #VOO #QQQM #Circle #PreStocks