Recently, it seems that everyone is more concerned about the announcement of interest rates by the Bank of Japan at midnight on the 19th (0:00). The main worry is whether a rate hike will lead to a sudden market crash and what impact it will have on various assets.

Let me share my own views, which reflect my actual operational thinking.

First, let's review the previous situations:

· On March 19, 2024, Japan raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years, officially ending the negative interest rate policy. That day, Bitcoin fell by 8%, but quickly rebounded, entering a longer period of fluctuation.

· On July 31 of the same year, the interest rate was raised from 0% to 0.25%. After the announcement, Bitcoin began to fall from around $65,000, hitting a low of $49,000 on August 5, but then it rose all the way up, reaching a new high in November.

· On January 24, 2025, the third rate hike occurred, increasing from 0.25% to 0.5%. In the following three days, it fluctuated down by 8%, and later in March-April, due to the impact of the trade war, it retraced by 30%, but eventually rose again and reached a new high.

So how will it go this time?

In fact, the Bank of Japan itself does not want to raise interest rates; it is more about the United States wanting them to do so—America wants to lower interest rates but also wants to control the flow of global capital, especially stabilizing the pricing power of precious metals (like gold). Therefore, in the short term, after a rise in gold, there is likely to be a noticeable correction.

As for U.S. stocks, especially core assets like Nasdaq, I believe the trend will still be upward with fluctuations.

Will there be a market crash or something major happening, as many people worry?

I think not for the time being. Because this expectation of a rate hike is already known even to ordinary retail investors, institutions have long been prepared. Bitcoin has already fallen from $116,000 to $80,000 in advance, which actually has already released part of the risk. So if the market does fall after the actual rate hike, I think it would be an opportunity to buy core assets.

I myself am also starting with a base position, habitually laying out, but I will never use high leverage—either spot or very low leverage. Recently, I estimate that Bitcoin is very likely to test around $100,000 again.

In short, that's it, personal opinion, for reference only. #日本加息