右侧天才涵百亿

Recently, it seems that everyone is more concerned about the announcement of interest rates by the Bank of Japan at midnight on the 19th (0:00). The main worry is whether a rate hike will lead to a sudden market crash and what impact it will have on various assets.

Let me share my own views, which reflect my actual operational thinking.

First, let's review the previous situations:

· On March 19, 2024, Japan raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years, officially ending the negative interest rate policy. That day, Bitcoin fell by 8%, but quickly rebounded, entering a longer period of fluctuation.
· On July 31 of the same year, the interest rate was raised from 0% to 0.25%. After the announcement, Bitcoin began to fall from around $65,000, hitting a low of $49,000 on August 5, but then it rose all the way up, reaching a new high in November.
· On January 24, 2025, the third rate hike occurred, increasing from 0.25% to 0.5%. In the following three days, it fluctuated down by 8%, and later in March-April, due to the impact of the trade war, it retraced by 30%, but eventually rose again and reached a new high.

So how will it go this time?

In fact, the Bank of Japan itself does not want to raise interest rates; it is more about the United States wanting them to do so—America wants to lower interest rates but also wants to control the flow of global capital, especially stabilizing the pricing power of precious metals (like gold). Therefore, in the short term, after a rise in gold, there is likely to be a noticeable correction.

As for U.S. stocks, especially core assets like Nasdaq, I believe the trend will still be upward with fluctuations.

Will there be a market crash or something major happening, as many people worry?

I think not for the time being. Because this expectation of a rate hike is already known even to ordinary retail investors, institutions have long been prepared. Bitcoin has already fallen from $116,000 to $80,000 in advance, which actually has already released part of the risk. So if the market does fall after the actual rate hike, I think it would be an opportunity to buy core assets.

I myself am also starting with a base position, habitually laying out, but I will never use high leverage—either spot or very low leverage. Recently, I estimate that Bitcoin is very likely to test around $100,000 again.

In short, that's it, personal opinion, for reference only. #日本加息

Interest rate cuts pull strongly, if not cut it may directly lead to a black swan
Waiting for tonight's direction #美联储FOMC会议

The Federal Reserve is taking major action tonight, are people bullish or bearish #美联储FOMC会议

Brother Maji said the bull market has just begun, what does everyone think?

How are our arrangements for next week?

Monday —— QE begins
Tuesday —— Inflation expectations
Wednesday —— Federal Reserve interest rate cut
Thursday —— Federal Reserve balance sheet release
Friday —— Jerome Powell resigns

The observations on the 60th day of the bear market are indeed worth noting. Current market sentiment has shifted from retail panic to liquidity pressures at the institutional level.

Historical data shows that a true bear market bottom often requires a cleansing period of 12-18 months. The declines in October and November primarily liquidated leveraged retail investors, but the balance sheet adjustments of whales, DeFi protocols, and miners may have only just begun.

The risks of stablecoin de-pegging and tightening liquidity at exchanges will be key indicators in the next phase.

Recently, there have been quite a few positive developments. The Federal Reserve has ended QT, and the SEC Chairman announced that the crypto innovation exemption will take effect in January. All the good news was released in one day, leading BTC to rebound to around 9.3. In a bear market, there is a kind of increase called a dead cat bounce, and the final outcome is always the same. Don't be foolishly shouting that the bull market is back; otherwise, you will be the clown.

#美SEC推动加密创新监管 Why did the market rise?
Mainly because the Federal Reserve officially stopped "tapering" today (which can be understood as stopping the withdrawal of liquidity from the market), and everyone feels it's a good thing, so the market rose to pay respect.
This is the Federal Reserve temporarily providing a bit of liquidity to the banking system (13.5 billion USD) because interbank liquidity has been too tight recently, almost unable to turn over, which is a passive emergency rescue, like giving a glass of water to someone who is extremely thirsty, but it doesn't mean they will receive an extra glass every day from now on.
What is the key issue?
The core restriction that truly makes banks "cash-strapped"—SLR (Supplementary Leverage Ratio)—has not been relaxed. It's like putting a "tightening spell" on the banks: they cannot arbitrarily expand their business, cannot buy a large amount of government bonds, and cannot withstand the potential large-scale bond issuance shocks from the Treasury in the future.
So what will happen in the future?
This wave of increase is mainly emotional, not true "liquidity injection." Whether the short-term dollar tightness will ease depends on whether the SLR tightening spell will loosen. If it doesn't loosen, banks will still occasionally "run out of water," and the Federal Reserve may have to passively inject liquidity again, causing the market to oscillate between "water shortage—liquidity injection" without forming a sustained loose funding environment.
For example:
It's like the water in a swimming pool has been drained too much (tapering), and today it finally stopped draining, everyone is happy for a moment. The administrator temporarily added a small bucket of water (13.5 billion repurchase) to prevent the pool from running dry, but the main water valve (SLR) is still tightly shut, so it's difficult for the pool's water level to continue rising, and after a while, they may have to call the administrator again to add water (the market lacks sustained momentum, overall trend looks bearish).

Killing line, financial markets, retail investors are just pure cannon fodder

Why is my 'foolproof method' in the cryptocurrency contract more profitable?
Many people are addicted to complex indicators and high-frequency operations, but ultimately suffer losses.
However, our method, which is simple to the extreme, can stabilize the winning rate at over 70%.
Its core is only three points: no greed, no guessing, no holding.

The following is the breakdown of the 75% winning rate 'foolproof method', which only requires three steps, just like leveling up in a game; even beginners can easily master it:

——1️⃣ Select Coin: Only focus on mainstream, reject shanzhai
Concentrate on BTC and ETH. The reason is that they have large market values, stable trends, and are not easily manipulated, avoiding the traps of severe fluctuations in altcoins, which is fundamental to a high winning rate.

——2️⃣ Open Position: Only follow the trend, do not guess tops and bottoms
The only reference: 4-hour chart MA60 moving average.
If the price is above MA60 and the moving average is rising → only go long.
If the price is below MA60 and the moving average is falling → only go short.
Do not predict tops or bottoms; let the trend guide your actions. For example, during the process of BTC rising from 40,000 to 70,000 in 2024, sticking to going long along MA60 can ensure steady profits, and it is not easy to be shaken out during pullbacks.

——3️⃣ Risk Control: Strict stop-loss and take-profit, execute at the point

· Stop-loss: Fixed at 5%. For example, if you open a position at 10,000, close it decisively at 9,500, and never hold the position.
· Take-profit: Fixed at 10%. Exit when it rises to 11,000, not greedy for the subsequent increase.

Why is this 'foolproof method' effective? The key lies in three words: save, accurate, stable.

· Save: Just focus on the 4-hour chart and MA60, check twice a day, to avoid information overload and emotional interference.
· Accurate: Follow the trend rather than trying to catch reversals, give up the idea of counter-trend and trying to catch bounces; acting in accordance with the trend is the path to lasting profits.
· Stable: Protect the principal and improve the winning rate through fixed ratio stop-loss and take-profit; a single trade may not yield huge profits, but the cumulative effect over the long term is significant.

What is truly complex is often speculation, while what is simple and sustainable is the choice of experts. Those who can stick to simple rules are the final winners in the market.

There is actually nothing surprising about last night's crash
1. The country is cracking down on virtual currencies
2. Ai exploded

You are really tough. Just said in the previous message that if you dare to pull me, I will dare to empty $pippin

$pippin I regret running early, if you dare to go up, I will dare to wait for you to go up and open, waiting for you~

Follow these six points to ensure 100% profitability
1: Learn to take profits and cut losses
The market changes rapidly; you must learn to take profits and cut losses. This may sound difficult, but it’s not. Taking profits controls your greed. A cryptocurrency won’t rise indefinitely or fall continuously; there are cycles. Therefore, taking profits becomes especially important. Don’t always worry about closing too early and missing out on future profits! You must remember that money in the crypto world is never-ending, but the money in your account can run out. Cutting losses means giving up on sunk costs, which can also be difficult. Don’t always think that by holding on a little longer, the market will reverse in the next second. Never think this way. If you’re wrong, you’re wrong. Take the hit standing straight; though losing a limb to survive hurts, it can truly save your life.
2: Do not trade frequently
A big taboo: Do not always think about making profits from both sides? Wake up! Very few people can do this. Being able to profit from one side is enough. Another point is the transaction fees; low leverage is fine, but high leverage can be painful. When you open a position, you lose 1-2 points of profit immediately. You must ensure that this trade can make money; otherwise, it’s meaningless. All your profits will just go to the market makers as fees!
3: Learn to stay on the sidelines
When you don’t understand the market, don’t blindly open positions. Not understanding the market and not accurately grasping the direction is no different from gambling! Trading relies on a probability advantage. No one can accurately predict whether it will rise or fall; the market changes too quickly. You can only say that there is a high probability of rising or falling.
4: Progress gradually
Don’t always think you can become a big shot in one go. The crypto market won’t make you rich overnight. For example, if you use a capital of 100 and go long with 10x leverage, your position is 1000. If it rises by one point, you earn 10 dollars; if it rises by two points, that’s 20 dollars in your pocket, enough for a breakfast. Nowadays, working in a factory earns about 15 dollars an hour. If you place three or four trades a day with a win rate of 60-70%, it’s more comfortable than working in a factory.
5: Avoid heavy betting
Absolutely, do not heavily bet. If something unexpected happens, you could lose everything. For example, if the market is expected to rise and suddenly a major news event causes it to plummet, and you haven’t set a stop loss, you’re done for! Therefore, don’t rush; always trade lightly and focus on stability. The crypto market is abundant with trends and opportunities, and it will always be there; at least for the next 10-20 years. So don’t be deceived by immediate illusions! $ETH

#加密市场反弹 11.26
The cryptocurrency market continues to maintain a state of repair. Yesterday's recovery did not break the previous high and is still being suppressed under the 8-hour mark, with poor momentum persistence. There are occasional surges, though brief, but the sustainability is lacking, and the sideways consolidation occupies 80% of the daily trend. Sharp rise - sideways - sharp fall - sideways, this pattern has been ongoing for more than three months. After liquidity tightened, activity has clearly diminished. The daily structure remains within a bullish cycle today, with expectations for upward repair.

Bitcoin: Range consolidation, there is still room for upward repair. Currently, technical indicators are mixed. On one hand, the RSI on the 4-hour chart shows a bullish divergence, indicating a potential short-term rebound; on the other hand, the moving average system is in a bearish arrangement, but short-term momentum is weakening, and the market may enter a consolidation observation period. Before the direction is clear, it is advised to maintain patience. Momentum can be exponentially enhanced on an hourly basis, and one can look for a high-level challenge to the daily resistance.

Ethereum: Consolidation and repair, there is still room. Current technical indicators show a strong short-term trend, for example, the MACD at the 4-hour level has formed a golden cross, but the trading volume has not effectively increased, indicating a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. Therefore, before the direction is clear, it is advised to maintain patience. There is a strong expectation for repair, but this also requires significant capital capability. If momentum does not pick up, it can easily lead to volatility $BTC $ETH .

#加密市场反弹 True trading experts understand the principle of 'few but excellent.' They do not try to seize every opportunity, but instead select 2-3 varieties that they are most familiar with and that align with their trading style, delving into their industry logic, volatility characteristics, and seasonal patterns to thoroughly understand the 'temperament' of the varieties. In terms of strategy, they also do not frequently change, but focus on 1-2 sets of core strategies that have been validated, continuously refining the details and enhancing execution $ETH

Who understands, the Binance coin bought for 1300, thinking it was the beginning of a story:-)$BNB

Should not close positions in two times, actual 6 times profit, are there any brothers following up now?

$pippin The time has come, brothers, let's go!\n

Will $ETH repeat the market trend of 2021? (｡ì _ í｡)