This week's key data (2025.12.15-21)
Overall expectation: Neutral to dovish, inflation stabilizing + Japan normalization, favorable for risk assets but volatility amplifies.
1. U.S. November CPI (Thursday 21:30)
Expectation: YoY 3.0%, MoM +0.3%.
Viewpoint: In line or slightly lower → strengthens soft landing, favorable for U.S. stocks/gold; exceeding expectations → stronger dollar, pressure on the stock market.
Impact: Dollar and U.S. Treasury yields dominate volatility.
2. Japan interest rate decision (Friday early morning)
Expectation: Rate hike by 25bp to 0.75% (probability nearly 100%).
Viewpoint: Almost certain rate hike, yen appreciation + end of negative interest rate era.
Impact: USD/JPY dips to 145, arbitrage trades unwound, bearish for high-risk assets (like $BTC , Nikkei short-term).
3. U.S. Michigan inflation expectations final value (Friday 23:00)
Expectation: 1-year 4.1% (previous value retracted).
Viewpoint: Confirmation of retraction → further favorable for bond market and growth stocks.
If all data meets expectations: Dollar slightly retraces, yen strengthens, risk assets rebound. Major risk: Japan's rate hike triggers global liquidity tightening, VIX easily spikes.
Operational advice: Short-term conservative, mainly trade USD/JPY short (target 145); can add positions in U.S. stocks/gold lightly after moderate CPI; this week, risk-averse position not less than 20%. High volatility, strict stop-loss.
