Weekly Crypto Outlook: What I’m Watching This Week (BTC • ETH • Alts)
Market mood: Fear is elevated and positioning looks fragile, which often leads to sharp moves in both directions. This week feels more “macro-driven” than “narrative-driven,” so I’m prioritizing key events + liquidity levels over predictions.
1) The Macro Drivers (High Impact)
Bank of Japan (Dec 19)
If the BoJ signals tighter policy, it can strengthen JPY and pressure risk assets via carry-trade unwinds.
Translation: liquidity can tighten fast, and BTC/Alts often feel it first.
US data flow (jobs/inflation surprises)
Anything that shifts rate-cut expectations can push crypto quickly.
Watch for volatility spikes around releases (fakeouts are common).
2) BTC Outlook (Range first, then expansion)
Base case: choppy consolidation unless a macro headline hits.
Support zone: ~88k area first; then ~85k as a deeper liquidity pocket.
Resistance zone: ~93k area; reclaiming and holding it improves bullish odds.
Bull scenario: BTC reclaims resistance, open interest stays controlled, spot demand holds → grind up and squeeze shorts.
Bear scenario: macro shock + loss of support → fast sweep down (liquidity hunt), then watch for a reaction bounce.
3) ETH & Alts (Selective strength, but fragile)
If BTC is unstable, most alts remain “high beta” (they drop harder).
ETH can outperform if it holds key supports and BTC stays rangebound.
I’m looking for relative strength leaders (coins holding up while BTC chops) rather than chasing random pumps.
4) My Game Plan (Simple)
Don’t fight macro headlines.
Trade levels, not feelings: wait for reclaim/confirmation near support/resistance.
Size down if volatility expands; protect capital first.
Not financial advice. Just my watchlist and framework for the week.
What are you watching: BoJ, US data, or pure technicals?
#BTC #ETH #CryptoOutlook #RiskManagement #Altcoins
