#加密市场反弹 Consultant discusses hot topics:
This week is just the standard hell week, nothing much to explain. Messages are coming in one after another: non-farm payrolls, inflation, speeches from Federal Reserve officials, and Japan's interest rate decisions, all coming together, clearly aiming to hit the market hard.
First, let me give you the conclusion, this week the only keyword is: short. No bottom fishing, no catching falling knives, and do not go long without seeing a big needle. I mentioned last week in my analysis about Japan's interest rate hike, since last year, every time the Bank of Japan raises rates, it starts with a twenty-point drop.
In March, it dropped more than 20%, in July it dropped more than 20%, and in January this year it dropped directly by 30%. At this point, some people will definitely insist that the market has already anticipated this. If it was truly fully anticipated, how come every time the interest rate hike lands, it can still drop so hard?
The so-called expectations are merely a placebo for retail investors. The real panic selling always happens after the shoe drops, not before the news comes out. Bitcoin has already broken 88K this morning; this is capital leaving early. When non-farm payrolls, inflation, and US stocks resonate together, you will understand.
Thinking back to the fluctuations over the weekend, I didn't take them seriously. Liquidity is poor, and the pin bars are all illusions. What truly determines life and death are this week's data. The cryptocurrency circle still lacks its own narrative; to put it bluntly, it’s just a shadow of tech stocks. With US stocks looking bad, Bitcoin will be the first to kneel.
Back to the market, the weekly performance is just a pile of crap; there’s really no need to wash this point. In the morning, it first plundered 87.6K, then closed below the balance zone at 88.3K. Such a closing method is weak. Don’t tell me we are still in a fluctuation range; that just means it hasn't died yet, not a healthy trend.
As long as the price is kept below 88.3K, the bears are absolutely dominant. The two lower positions, 85K and 78K, if the market doesn't hit these two positions, it shows that the main force hasn’t washed enough.
The daily line has bounced from November 21 to now, oscillating for 23 days, moving in a wedge shape. Anyone who tells you that a wedge must reverse is just trying to deceive you into taking over. A wedge is more of a breather before a drop. 80.6K is not a medium to long-term bottom; it wouldn't be surprising to see Bitcoin starting with a 7 later.
The hourly level has already given a very standard bearish signal, with 87.6K being completely plundered and a pin bar formed upwards. But the real pressure is at the four-hour level's bearish order block, around 90.4K. This is the most cost-effective position, but if it stabilizes at 90.6K, that will be a different script.
89.5K is also a hurdle; if it can't get over it, it’s weak. At the beginning of October, the monthly line had a death cross, and in November it directly fell to 80.6K. Over the weekend, the 45-day line also had a death cross. Under this structure, the real support is at 77.4K and 70.1K. If 77.4K gives a rebound, that will be after a decline.
The Ethereum trend here is clearly off; logically, it should have broken 3K for a strong move, but it only hit 3023 and then retreated. This is not strong; it’s still虚. Once it breaks below the 30-day line, the decline will be very fast. Today's pressure can be referenced from 3100 to 3130.
Master looks at the trend:
86.1K to 87.6K is currently the only key defense line to watch. This is a dense trading area and also the position of the short-term upward trend line below. As long as this cannot be defended, the market will directly turn weak.
The moving averages here are already in a standard reverse arrangement, with the long-term moving averages pressing down from above, which is solid strong resistance. The price hasn’t been able to stand back above the moving averages, so the logic for a decline hasn’t been disproven. Don’t make excuses for yourself to chase long positions.
From the CME gap perspective, it needs to bounce back to around 91K at least to fill the holes that need filling. Whether it fills or not is another matter, but this position is already awkward as it is.
Today's core reference is the 200MA; this line is the dividing line between bullish and bearish. If it can't stand above it, any rebound can only be seen as a pullback.
First support: 87,600
Second support: 86,100
These two positions are for calculating the risk-reward ratio, not for mindlessly holding on. If the lower trend line is broken, we can only hope that the 86K line holds strong.
Resistance level:
First resistance: 92,000
Second resistance: 94,100
Before the 200MA is effectively broken through and stabilized, treat the short term as bearish. If the psychological level of 90K does not stabilize, the resistance levels above are basically just decorations; there's no need to look closely.
12.15 Master’s segment pre-embedded:
Long entry reference: not referencing at the moment
Short entry reference: short in the range of 90400-91000, target: 89500-89000
If you really want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, not just make hasty conclusions after watching the market a few times. This market is filled with performers; today they show long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they 'always catch the top and bottom,' but in reality, it’s all hindsight. A blogger truly worth following must have trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and stands up to scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don't let exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots blind you; long-term observation and deep understanding are needed to distinguish who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!
