Last night in the crypto circle, some friends must have been happy while others were worried! ETH put on a dramatic "extreme pull" show, plunging sharply to a low of 3022 twice, a textbook-level "pinning" operation. Just when it seemed like it would dive straight through the level, it was pulled back by funds. Once the "double pin bottom" pattern emerged, many people asked me overnight: Is it time to buy the dip? Don't rush, let me, an old hand who has been through ups and downs for five years, explain it clearly!
First, let's look at the short-term market. The performance on this 1-hour chart is indeed a bit "exciting". After two bottom tests and rebounds, the price has firmly stood above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands and is currently gearing up to surge above the middle band, showing signs of a potential breakout above the upper band. Looking at the MACD indicator, there is already a hint of a golden cross below the zero line, and the green bars are starting to gradually shorten, indicating that short-term buying momentum is quietly warming up. At least in the short term, we no longer need to worry about being dominated by the fear of a one-sided sell-off.
But don’t celebrate too early! Let’s shift our focus to the daily level, and a cold splash of water comes down. ETH is still firmly pressed below the middle track of the Bollinger Bands and is unable to move, with the MACD line moving sideways, showing no signs of turning upwards. This is very clear—the overall downward trend hasn’t been reversed at all. Here, it’s essential to highlight: the 3300 position can be considered the current "line of life and death"; if we can’t get past this hurdle, the so-called rebound is just a "paper tiger", and it’s incredibly difficult for the bulls to truly turn the tide.
To use a simple analogy, the current ETH is like a patient just rescued from the ICU. Although it has a heartbeat and temporarily escaped life-threatening danger, it is still very weak. A slight stimulus could cause problems again. Recently, the operations of large funds in the circle have indeed been crazy, giving a shot of adrenaline to the weak market. However, whether this shot will be effective, whether it will truly allow the market to recover, ultimately depends on the result of the 3300 "checkup report".
Here I must clarify to everyone, which is also my consistently emphasized viewpoint: the volatile market is just a "meat grinder", and never chase highs and cut losses! Many novices rush in excitedly at short-term rebounds and panic during small declines, ultimately not earning money and exhausting themselves physically and mentally. Remember, whether going long or short, stop-loss is always your "lifeline". Don’t learn from those large funds who can withstand it; they can hold on because their foundation is strong. You might directly "liquidate and exit" if you can’t hold on. It’s true that the bigger the storm, the more expensive the fish, but the premise is that your boat must be sturdy enough. Don’t let the boat sink before the waves even rise!
Based on the chart, I offer everyone two operational ideas, purely based on my years of practical summary, and do not constitute investment advice:
Friends of the aggressive faction, if you really can't help but want to participate, you can try shorting with a light position at the current price, aiming first at the 3050-3000 range. But I emphasize again, you must set a stop-loss! Don’t have the lucky mindset thinking you can catch the bottom; the market will never show mercy to gamblers. What we want is steady profits, not gambling.
Friends of the conservative faction, listen to me, be patient! What we should do now is to "watch more and act less"; wait for two clear signals before taking action: first, the daily closing price should firmly stay above 3300, and it’s best if it can hold with increased volume, indicating sufficient capital support; second, the MACD indicator must officially form a golden cross. Only when both signals are met can we follow up, ensuring much greater safety.
Some people regard large funds as "gods", thinking their operations are guiding lights, which is a bit naive. It’s undeniable that when large funds take action at this price level, it shows they believe there is certain value at this level, but this does not mean the market will immediately reverse. Large funds are not infallible either; they can make mistakes in judgment and may also be "educated" by the market and face liquidation. Their operations can serve as a reference signal, but they absolutely cannot be the sole basis for trading.
Finally, let me reiterate my core viewpoint: in the short term, ETH is supported by the double bottom on the 1-hour chart and the MACD golden cross, and it is likely to launch an attack towards the 3200-3300 range. However, this is just a rebound in a downward trend, not a reversal. Before the daily MACD indicator turns positive and the price effectively stabilizes above 3300, never easily shout that the bull market has returned; otherwise, it’s easy to be "slapped in the face" by the market.
Many friends tell me they don’t know when to enter or exit the market, and they are always anxious while holding positions. This is actually very normal; the market changes rapidly, and even seasoned traders need to continuously learn and summarize. If you also have such confusion, feel free to follow me! I will share the latest currency analyses, entry points, and exit timing in the group every day, using the most straightforward language to help you interpret market logic and guide you to avoid those easy-to-fall-into "pits". Follow me @链上标哥 to avoid getting lost! I will help you navigate the crypto market with fewer detours, and together we can achieve steady profits in a volatile market!
