In the current market environment, the recent surge of $MERL seems to have attracted quite a few people to follow suit and buy in, but from an overall perspective, entering the market at this point actually hides a lot of risks.

The core issue that cannot be overlooked is the upcoming unlocking event in December. This is a continuous token release that will directly increase the circulating supply. In this context, it is difficult for the market to form a stable long-term valuation for $MERL, and the rebound is more viewed as a short-term phenomenon rather than a trend opportunity.

Observing the market performance also confirms this point. The price once touched around 0.45, repeatedly attempting to break upward, but has always lacked strong continuity and buying strength. This way of rising, under the current liquidity conditions of $MERL, resembles a false move where volatility is amplified — it is not a firm intent to push the price to new heights, but rather to raise it first to see if anyone is willing to buy in.

On-chain behavior further reinforces cautious expectations. Many large holders have already transferred their positions to exchanges before the unlocking, and this move itself changes the psychological game of market participants. Even if it is uncertain whether there will be an immediate sell-off, this signal alone is enough to make the overall atmosphere lean towards defense, or even bearish.

Therefore, I personally define the current rise as a tentative action. Until the unlocking pressure and structural issues are truly digested, I will not view it as a signal for a new bullish starting point. On the contrary, when emotions push the price to relatively high levels, I prefer to try shorting with a light position and observe the subsequent trends. If the development meets expectations, I do not rule out further increasing the short position.

Overall, $MERL may still have some volatility in the short term, but maintaining a defensive mindset will be more prudent until there is a significant improvement in the larger framework.

#MERL