It's not that the market doesn't provide opportunities, but that we have personally squandered them.
I remember when I first entered the crypto circle, I watched others double their ETH in half a month, my eyes turned red, fearing that if I was just a moment late, I would miss the opportunity. And what happened? Chasing highs and cutting losses became the norm; when BTC rose by 5%, I rushed in, and when it fell by 3%, I panicked and fled. In less than half a year, my initial capital of 50,000 was reduced to 12,000.
Later I realized that 90% of the people in this market are becoming poor due to overexertion. The real winners, on the other hand, spend most of their time 'not trading'.
The root of most people's losses: mistaking speculation for investment
The biggest mistake I made in the early days was thinking that trading cryptocurrencies relied on luck and courage. I have seen too many people go all in on some obscure coin without even understanding the candlestick charts, reasoning that 'inside information says it will rise'. As a result, within less than half a month, the coin price halved, leading to liquidation, and they lost even the chips to break even.
The crypto space is not a casino, but a battlefield for 'cognitive realization'. Those who can make money long-term earn from 'cognitive differences'—understanding project value better than others, grasping market rules, and controlling emotions enables one to make profits.
The market always anticipates ahead; this is the most important realization I've had over the past decade. Two years ago, when a mainstream coin announced a 'cooperation benefit', I started selling in batches at a 3% high open, while those around me were waiting for 'more gains'. In the end, the market makers turned and dumped, and it fell back to where it started that day. A positive development often turns into a negative one; I've remembered this for ten years.
The survival rule for small funds: it's not about 'speed', but about 'waiting'.
It took me five years to understand: for small funds to survive, the key is not frequent trading, but patient waiting. Catching two or three major upward waves in a year can provide enough profit to cover living expenses.
Trend trading is the most suitable method for ordinary investors; the core logic is 'follow the trend and do not fight the market'. My current strategy is: keep 40% cash for medium to long-term, sell when BTC rises to a key position, and buy when it drops to the bottom; for short-term, only focus on active coins like ETH and SOL, looking at 15-minute candlesticks and KDJ for buying points, and do not touch obscure coins.
Taking SOL as an example, last year I once bought in the wrong direction, cutting my losses at 5% without holding the position. Later, when SOL dropped another 15%, I used the remaining capital to buy back at a lower price and ended up making a 20% profit. This is backed by strict stop-loss discipline: set a stop-loss at 10%-15% after buying, and if the price hits that level, sell immediately to avoid greater losses.
Little-known counterintuitive trading techniques.
After ten years of exploration, I've summarized a few 'counterintuitive' rules:
1. Counter-trade around holidays.
Reducing positions before holidays is my iron rule. Last year, before the Spring Festival, I lowered my position to 30%. Some said 'this year will definitely be an exception', but on the first day of the new year, BTC dropped 8%. They panicked and sold at a loss, while I waited for a rebound after the holiday, easily profiting from the price difference. The market is born in despair, grows in hesitation, and ends in madness.
2. Buy on bearish candles, sell on bullish candles.
When everyone is chasing bullish candles, you quietly buy bearish candles; when everyone is cutting losses on bearish candles, you decisively sell bullish candles—this is the counterintuitive logic for making money. I found that a closing big bearish candle might signal a buying opportunity, while a closing big bullish candle can suggest taking profits.
3. Keep your hands off during sideways periods.
The reason most people lose money is that they always want to find opportunities during sideways markets. In reality, a sideways market means the market is 'holding back for a big move'; instead of becoming fodder, it's better to wait for a clear trend. I set rules for myself: remain still like a mountain during sideways markets, and never act without a signal.
Position management: my 532 principle.
Strict position management is the key to my survival through three bull and bear markets. I now follow the '532 principle':
50% of funds should be invested in mainstream coins (Bitcoin, Ethereum), held for the long term (1-3 years), serving as the 'ballast'.
30% of funds should be invested in potential altcoins (leading projects in the sector, quality new projects), held for the medium to short term (3-6 months);
20% of funds should be kept in cash or stablecoins to respond to emergencies.
Even if I have high hopes for a project, I will not invest more than 20% of my funds. This way, even if the coin goes to zero, it won't affect my overall assets.
Trading cryptocurrencies is like practicing a discipline; mindset determines success or failure.
After years of trading cryptocurrencies, my deepest realization is that trading is essentially about mindset; greed and fear are the biggest enemies. Techniques can be learned, discipline can be practiced, but only by overcoming greed and fear can one survive and thrive in the 'hellish arena' of cryptocurrency.
Making money does not rely on luck, but on execution and respect for rhythm. Engrave 'do not chase highs, do not hold positions, wait for opportunities' in your heart, it can save you five years of detours.
Now, I still insist on learning every day because the crypto space is developing rapidly, with new coins, technologies, and policies constantly emerging; stopping learning would lead to being eliminated by the market. But most importantly, I always remember three core principles: survival first, rules above all, and continuous evolution.
If you are struggling in the crypto space, why not take a moment to think: is it time to shift from 'desperate trading' to 'wise waiting'? The market is always there, opportunities are always present, and only those who can control their emotions can hold onto profits.
This world does not lack opportunities; it lacks those who can wait, endure, and follow rules. Follow Ake to learn more first-hand information and precise points in the crypto space, becoming your navigation in the crypto world; learning is your greatest wealth!#加密市场反弹 #美联储降息 $ETH
