On December 15, 2025, Bitcoin experienced a volatile downward trend with an initial drop followed by a slight rebound. Market sentiment, macroeconomic environment, and technical indicators are all leaning towards bearish. Here is a specific analysis:

1. Price Performance: On that day, Bitcoin's intraday price broke below the crucial $88,000 level, hitting a low of $87,967.8, with a peak intraday decline exceeding 2.4%; as of around 1 PM, the price slightly rebounded to around $89,600, but overall it remained in a low-level fluctuation. In the past 24 hours, the amount of liquidation in the cryptocurrency market reached $270 million, involving over 110,000 people, with significant market panic; the current cryptocurrency fear and greed index is at 16, indicating an extreme fear zone.

2. Macroeconomic Environment: The Federal Reserve's policy is a core bearish factor. After completing its third rate cut of the year last week, Chairman Powell's stance on whether to continue lowering rates in January next year is ambiguous. Many officials tend to maintain restrictive policies. CME data shows that the market believes there is a 75.6% probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged in January. Additionally, the market is also watching the Bank of Japan meeting on December 18-19, where there is a high probability of a 25 basis point rate hike, which may strengthen the yen and impact risk assets like Bitcoin.

3. Technical Aspects: Bitcoin's moving averages show a bearish arrangement with a death cross, indicating clear bearish signals, but there are also potential rebound signals. On one hand, the CME futures gap at $90,400 has a magnetic attraction effect, serving as a key resistance level for a rebound; on the other hand, the energy tide indicator is showing a bullish divergence, suggesting that selling pressure may weaken. Currently, the $88,000 - $89,000 range has become a dividing line between bulls and bears. If effectively broken below, it could further probe down to $85,000 or even lower areas.

4. Institutional and Capital Trends: Standard Chartered Bank has significantly lowered its Bitcoin forecast, reducing the target price from $200,000 to $100,000 by the end of 2025.