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【Emergency Warning】 $MERL The market maker is manipulating the market to lure retail investors, significant selling pressure is approaching, short selling opportunities have emerged!
Benefiting from the overall heat of the Bitcoin Layer-2 ecosystem, $MERL has seen a weekly increase of about 20-30%, making it one of the leaders in the Layer-2 sector.
However, several pieces of information indicate that the risks are increasing.
1⃣
Technical Aspect: False breakout luring buyers, structural weakening
- After a brief spike to 0.44 in the morning, it quickly fell back. The 24-hour increase of 17% seems strong, but is actually a typical "pump trap in a liquidity-scarce environment."
- The key resistance level at 0.5 has been repeatedly tested without success, and the current price around 0.436 shows signs of fatigue. The market maker is clearly using market sentiment to induce retail investors to chase prices higher, creating room for subsequent sell-offs.
2⃣
Supply Side: December unlocking tsunami approaching
- Intensive unlocking schedule: Over the past few days, approximately 70 million MERL have been released.
- Even if OTC holders do not all sell immediately, market expectations have already formed. Each price rebound will face selling pressure from those looking to "cash out at a high."
- Key point: Early OTC costs are far below the current price, and holders have a strong motivation to take profits. This wave of unlocking will become a persistent price suppression factor.
3⃣
On-chain Evidence: Large holders have acted
- Previously, a certain large holder transferred 16 million MERL (worth about 8 million USD) from their on-chain wallet to the Bybit exchange.
- This action occurred on the eve of the unlocking, with a clear intention—front-running the sell-off to avoid facing worse liquidity during the unlocking peak.
- On-chain actions are publicly visible, which will further reinforce bearish market expectations and trigger follow-up sell-offs.
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Comprehensive Judgment:
Technical false breakout + concentrated unlocking expectations + large holders front-running = triple bearish factors combined.
Long-term outlook for Bitcoin ecosystem expansion is positive. However, the current market structure has clearly weakened, and any rebound may face strong selling pressure.
Advice:
Focus on establishing short positions on rebounds, with particular attention to short-selling opportunities in the 0.44-0.45 resistance area. If the price tests this area again and shows signs of stagnation, consider entering the market.
