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This week's news events are concentrated and are expected to have a significant impact on market trends.
On Tuesday, the unemployment rate and non-farm employment data will be released. Due to the previous U.S. government shutdown, some prior data is missing, and the direct comparability of this data has decreased, making market interpretation key; the actual results have a high degree of uncertainty.
On Thursday, November CPI will be announced. Similarly, due to the shutdown impact, October CPI data is missing, which makes continuous comparison difficult. Currently, the market expects CPI to be around 3.0%, reflecting that in the context of the beginning of the interest rate cut cycle, the market has begun to factor in the expectation of a potential rebound in inflation.
On Friday, attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. Currently, the market's expectation of a rate hike has risen to about 75%; if it materializes, it may cause additional fluctuations in the currently volatile market.
Overall, if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates while the Bank of Japan hikes rates, this combination of a "loosened and tightened" policy may put pressure on risk assets, increasing the likelihood of a short-term market downturn.
In summary, there are many disturbances in data and events this week, and the market direction is unclear. It is recommended to remain cautious and wait for my signal to enter the market!
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