#全球宏观经济不确定性影响加密市场 $BTC $ETH $SOL 2025 December 2023 global macroeconomic uncertainties are strongly impacting the cryptocurrency market from various aspects such as liquidity and risk appetite, directly causing significant declines in mainstream cryptocurrencies, with specific impacts reflected in the following areas:
1. Central bank monetary policy fluctuations disrupt liquidity: Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have cooled, coupled with the Bank of Japan signaling a rate hike in December, leading to a marginal contraction in global liquidity. Cryptocurrencies, as high-volatility assets, are extremely sensitive to liquidity; tightening U.S. liquidity has led investors to reduce holdings of these non-yielding assets, with Ethereum experiencing a daily drop of over 10% on December 1. At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields have fluctuated significantly, further raising funding costs and intensifying selling pressure in the cryptocurrency market.
2. Slowing global economic growth suppresses risk appetite: The OECD predicts that global economic growth will slow to 2.9% by 2026, with both the U.S. and Eurozone economies showing signs of weakness. The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI has been below the growth line for nine consecutive months as of November, while the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI has remained below the growth line for 18 months straight. Weak economic fundamentals have led to an overall decline in market risk appetite, prompting investors to prioritize exiting cryptocurrency assets in favor of safe-haven assets like gold and short-term government bonds, resulting in reduced liquidity in the crypto market and pushing prices downward.
3. Policy and trade fluctuations exacerbate market panic: Frequent adjustments to U.S. tariff policies have raised the policy uncertainty index to a high not seen since 2018, disrupting global supply chains while also making the market more pessimistic about risk assets. Additionally, the 30-day correlation coefficient between the cryptocurrency market and the Nasdaq 100 index has reached 0.80, meaning volatility in U.S. tech stocks will also transmit to the cryptocurrency market. Furthermore, the tightening of global regulation has further dented investor confidence, accelerating the outflow of funds from the cryptocurrency market and creating a vicious cycle of "fund outflow - price decline - panic selling."
