Brothers, this is unbelievable, Bitcoin has once again fallen below 90,000.
Last week it finally rose to 94,500, but yesterday it was smashed down to around 87,000 again.
Not bro, what happened to the promised interest rate cut? The big rise?
What's wrong with the market? It's like it's impotent, what's the situation? Can it recover this week?
Don't worry, brothers, Bai Ge will help you sort out what is happening in the market.
First of all, from the news perspective, it can be said that there is a lot of noise but little action; the market is already 'numb'.
First, let's talk about the big interest rate cut that happened last week; the big interest rate cut truly was: the shoe dropped, and the good news has all been released.
On the surface, lowering interest rates and injecting liquidity is favorable for risk assets, but why isn’t the market buying it?
The reason is simple: this matter is no longer fresh. The smart money in the market,
Months ago, there were expectations that the big beautiful one would lower interest rates due to weak economic data.
The capital that should have been allocated has long entered the market; now the news is officially announced.
It’s like a suspense drama that has been spoiled in advance.
When the finale is actually broadcasted, people might think, 'Is that it?'
Those who should take profits should sell quickly; if there isn’t enough new capital to come in and take over, the price naturally won’t rise.
Then let’s talk about what everyone is worried about: the Japanese interest rate hike.
Although the signals for interest rate hikes are getting stronger, the officials of the Japanese central bank are arguing quite fiercely internally.
Some people think they should raise interest rates quickly, but many others oppose this.
The dilemma of the opposition lies in the fact that rising domestic food prices have pushed up inflation,
But wage growth and service price increases are very slow, lacking core momentum.
At the same time, we must also pay attention to the big beautiful brother's mood and the global trade environment.
So from this perspective, the resistance to raising interest rates is still quite significant.
Moreover, although the Japanese interest rate hike means that global liquidity will continue to tighten.
But like the Fed’s interest rate cuts, this 'bearish' expectation has also been fermenting for a long time.
Many panic sellers worried about capital outflows may have sold long ago.
When the day of the interest rate hike arrives, it might not even drop due to 'bad news being fully priced in'.
The core issue in the market now is that expectations are running faster than the news.
So you see, the current market has a kind of 'desensitization' effect towards macro news.
Whether it’s bullish or bearish, as long as it has been discussed and anticipated by the market in advance,
By the time it really happens, its impact will be greatly reduced.
The current market is more about short-term funds speculating, rather than being driven by new trends.
The real rise and fall do not depend on the news itself, but on whether there is sustained, new incremental capital willing to come in.
And remain. Currently, there is still a lot of short-term arbitrage capital in the market.
The large funds making long-term plans are still on the sidelines.
This has led to a market situation of 'pressure above, support below'.
Next, from a technical perspective, it can be said that it’s a dilemma waiting for a 'breakout point'.
The technical aspect well reflects the dilemma caused by this news.
First, there’s the awkward oscillation range; right now, Bitcoin is trapped in a very obvious range:
Above is the strong resistance around 95,000 USD, which is the target area that was not effectively reached during the previous rebound;
Support below is around 80,000 USD; this position has been tested multiple times in the second half of this year without being effectively broken.
In this range, both bulls and bears are unable to exert strength.
Those who want to buy feel that the price is not cheap enough, unable to see the space above, and dare not chase;
Those who want to sell feel that there is support below and that prices won’t drop much, so they are reluctant to cut losses.
The result is a shrinking trading volume, with prices oscillating back and forth, consuming everyone’s patience.
Then there are the movements at critical points; resistance above: first is the previous high area of 94,500-95,000.
If it can break through with volume, it may challenge higher positions.
But the more important threshold is between 97,000 and 100,000 dollars, where more historical trapped positions are accumulated.
Support below: 80,000 USD is the recent lifeline; if it is effectively broken, such as stabilizing on the daily line,
Market sentiment may worsen, potentially leading to deeper pullbacks.
Brothers, that is the plump area of 75,000 to 77,000; this is another important low point for the year.
If it really gets to this position, selling a kidney is necessary to get in!
Next, brothers should pay attention to the hints from related markets.
Now it’s not just Bitcoin; the entire market is filled with a sense of wait-and-see.
For example, on Ethereum's weekly chart, analysts have observed a pattern called 'falling wedge'.
This pattern is generally considered a signal of declining bearish momentum, potentially reversing upwards.
But the key is that it needs to break through the upper limit of the volume breakout pattern to confirm.
This is actually a microcosm of the entire market state: technically, there is potential for a rebound.
But it just lacks that decisive, volume-driven breakthrough.
So, brothers, we are actually waiting for an opportunity; the current stagnation of Bitcoin,
is the result of the news expectations being digested in advance and the technical momentum being insufficient.
The big beautiful one’s interest rate cut is 'old news', while Japan's interest rate hike is the 'wolf is coming' story.
The market is somewhat numb to these. The price is now stuck in a clear range.
Above is an 'iron top', below is a 'steel bottom'. Before any new and unexpected variables appear,
This stalemate may continue for a while.
So Baige reminds brothers here that the most taboo thing now is to chase highs and lows based on news headlines.
The market is waiting for a 'breakout point' that could disrupt the balance; this breakout point might be a sudden geopolitical event.
It could also be some shocking large buy/sell orders. Before the direction is clear,
The best strategy may be to remain patient and restrain oneself.
Don’t be fooled by those huge orders in the square that seem to make tens of thousands of dollars.
What you can see are all stories; what you can’t see are all accidents.
Stories are told for people to hear, but the real issues are hidden in accidents that no one knows about.
So, always remember that surviving in the crypto world is the first rule.
Last week, Baige's strategy started from the 5th, continuously going long on Pippin, with profits over three times.
On the 8th, go long on ZEC at 370, exiting at 450 for profit.
On the 8th, short Voxel at 0.0252, exiting with more than double profits.
On the 11th, go long on BTC and Ethereum with 89,000 and 3,100, eating up 3,000 points and 230 points.
The above strategies were genuinely demonstrated in last week's article, with no fabrication involved.
If interested, you can refer to it; brothers who haven’t joined can follow and join the Binance square group.
If you want to make money once or twice, relying on luck is fine, but if you want to make money continuously, you must keep learning.
Continuously getting close to people who are better than you is the only way to have a chance.
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