When you want to swim with the tide, you first need to figure out where the tide comes from and where it is going.
As an old hand who has been through the ups and downs of the cryptocurrency market for many years, I want to talk to you today about a topic that is more important than short-term price fluctuations: how many bitcoins are really left for us to buy in the market?
First, let's look at some key data. Listed companies have accumulated over 1.08 million bitcoins. The amount of bitcoin held by US spot ETFs is even more astonishing, reaching 1.311 million, with BlackRock alone holding 777,000. Governments around the world are also not falling behind, holding a total of about 615,000. And that mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto has not moved the over 1 million bitcoins mined in the early days for nearly a decade and a half.
Even more startlingly, it is estimated that 2 million Bitcoins may have been permanently lost. On-chain data shows that over 3.4 million Bitcoins have not moved for over 10 years.
Supply crisis: The true scarcity of digital gold.
The total supply of Bitcoin is 21 million coins, and over 19.9 million have already been mined. However, the key is that the actual circulating supply of Bitcoin is far below this number.
Let's do some math: excluding Satoshi's over 1 million coins, the more than 2 million coins permanently lost, and the over 3.4 million coins that have been dormant for a long time, plus the over 3 million coins already held by institutions and governments, the actual liquid Bitcoins available in the market are very limited.
The halving mechanism significantly reduces the speed at which new coins are produced. After the fourth halving, the daily production is only 450 coins, a number that will be further halved in 2028. Meanwhile, institutional investors currently need to consume 3,600 Bitcoins daily, which is 8 times the new supply. This supply-demand imbalance is exacerbating a situation where, as one study points out, when the liquid supply drops below 2 million coins, the market may enter a nonlinear growth phase, at which point every buy order will significantly drive up prices.
Who is buying, who is selling? The market structure has completely changed.
The current market landscape has completely changed. The bull market in 2025 is essentially driven by institutions. Most retail funds have flowed into meme coins and other altcoins, with allocations to BTC and ETH only at 37%.
Institutional behavior patterns are also entirely different from those of retail investors. When listed companies buy Bitcoin, it is more like a strategic reserve rather than a short-term speculation. MicroStrategy, as a leader, has accumulated over 600,000 Bitcoins, and its buying strategy features a disregard for price fluctuations.
Even when the market fluctuates, long-term holders, the 'whales,' continue to hold, with the number of Bitcoins held for over 5 years steadily increasing. Recent selling pressure mainly comes from mid-term holders (those who have held for less than 5 years), not from the earliest long-term holders.
Future price trajectory: The critical point may arrive sooner than expected.
Based on the current supply and demand situation, some studies have made bold predictions. A relatively neutral academic study points out that based on pure supply and demand analysis, Bitcoin has a 75% chance of exceeding $4.81 million by 2036. More realistically, the study predicts that Bitcoin is most likely to break the $1 million mark between the end of 2027 and the end of 2028.
Standard Chartered predicts that Bitcoin will rise to about $135,000 by the end of the third quarter of 2025 and to $200,000 by the end of the fourth quarter. Bitwise forecasts a target price of $1.3 million for Bitcoin by 2035.
These predictions are not unfounded. When 5,000 to 6,000 Bitcoins leave circulation daily and the new supply is only 450 coins/day, simple math reveals the conclusion of supply-demand imbalance. If this trend continues, the liquid supply will drop below 2 million coins by the end of 2029.
How should we respond? My personal strategy.
In the face of such market dynamics, my strategy is:
Abandon the mindset of short-term trading. Market trends driven by institutions are more stable, but liquidity is thinner, with buy and sell orders dominated by whales. For retail investors, attempting to trade in and out may not be as effective as holding long-term.
Focus on on-chain data rather than price fluctuations. I check several key indicators daily: the Bitcoin balance on exchanges (if it continues to decline and approaches 3 million coins, it means liquidity is tightening), ETF net inflow data (whether it remains above 2,000-3,000 coins/day), and the supply ratio of long-term holders (currently about 72%).
Understand the logic of institutional behavior. Institutions do not focus on short-term prices like retail investors do; they care more about Bitcoin's long-term value proposition—the attributes of digital gold. As global debt issues become more severe, Bitcoin's appeal as a non-sovereign store of value will only increase.
Position management is more important. In such a market, maintaining a certain cash position allows one to not miss trends while also being able to cope with sudden fluctuations.
Closing thoughts
We are at a historic moment as Bitcoin transforms from a 'marginal asset' to 'global financial infrastructure.' As compliance channels open, even a mere 1% allocation of the trillions of dollars in traditional finance to Bitcoin will have a huge price impact.
The future Bitcoin market will be priced by institutions, driven by enterprises, and determined by infrastructure. For us, understanding this structural trend and positioning ourselves ahead of where institutions will come might be the best strategy.
So, returning to the question in the title: How many Bitcoins do we still have to buy? The answer is—far fewer than most people imagine. Smart money is absorbing the limited supply at a nearly frantic pace, while most retail investors are still anxious about short-term price fluctuations.
In this new era where institutions are like the sea and retail investors are like the tide, what we need to do is not resist the tide, but understand the direction of the current and go with the flow.
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