On the late-night on-chain data chart, a steep reduction curve suddenly appeared, is this a silent alarm from large holders, or a clever strategic shift?
At two in the morning, when most investors were still dreaming, a massive transaction of 786 ETH quietly completed. The protagonist of this reduction - a giant whale known in the community as 'Brother Ma Ji', cashed out nearly 3 million USD this time.
After this operation, his holdings dropped to 3144 ETH (approximately 9.69 million USD), and importantly, the liquidation price has been exposed at a sensitive position of 3042.74 USD. The current Ethereum price is hovering around 3069 USD, which means the market only needs to drop about 0.9% more to possibly trigger a forced liquidation.
01 Market signals behind whale movements
This reduction by 'Big Brother' is far from a simple profit-taking move. On-chain data analysis shows that this is a risk control operation after precise calculations.
After reducing his holdings, his liquidation line is nearly at the current market price, and the leverage risk exposure has dramatically narrowed. This operation indicates that the survival strategy has replaced the value appreciation strategy as the primary goal.
This is not the first time 'Big Brother' has attracted attention due to leverage issues. In October, his high-leverage position on Hyperliquid was continuously liquidated, resulting in a cumulative loss of up to $53.62 million within the month.
At that time, his trading strategy displayed a typical pattern: quickly reopening long positions after forced liquidation, particularly focusing on long positions in XPL and ETH.
02 Three perspectives on whale behavior interpretation
From a market analysis perspective, there are generally three interpretations of such whale reduction behavior:
Risk hedging says: In the context of rising holding costs in the derivatives market, this is likely an urgent 'de-leveraging' operation. When the liquidation line becomes a double-edged sword, proactive reduction is the only way to avoid 'spiking to zero'.
Capital migration says: The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to weaken, which may prompt whales to shift funds towards high-beta small-cap altcoins, emerging L2 ecosystem projects, or even hedging assets in traditional financial markets. A silent retreat often prepares for a more agile strike.
The sentiment barometer states: Whale position management has its cold logic, different from retail investors' 'faith charging'. When on-chain fee rates, liquidation maps, and volatility indices simultaneously issue warnings, 'running fast' is a basic quality of professional players.
03 Not just Big Brother: Collective actions of the whale group
The market is not solely driven by the 'Big Brother' in action. Recent data shows that the four major whales sold nearly 200,000 ETH in the past month, creating significant downward pressure on the market.
The main sellers include well-known institutions like the Ethereum Foundation and Jump Trading.
At the same time, whales in the Bitcoin sector are also unusually active. An anonymous whale opened a short position on the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid with a value of $163 million in Bitcoin leveraged perpetual contracts, using 10x leverage.
Moreover, some whales have been marked as 'insider whales' by the crypto community for establishing short positions 30 minutes before Trump's announcement of tariffs on China.
04 Market impact from whale sell-offs
The concentrated sell-off by whales has a direct impact on market liquidity. Data shows that Bitcoin fell below the critical $100,000 mark last week, with recent selling behavior by long-term holders being a significant driving force.
In the past 30 days, long-term Bitcoin holders have sold approximately 815,000 Bitcoins, marking the highest sell-off activity since early 2024.
Market sentiment has also deteriorated. The flow of funds into investment products shows weak demand—Bitcoin ETFs have seen outflows for five consecutive weeks, totaling $2.6 billion. The level of pessimism in market sentiment is evident.
Market vulnerability stems not only from the sell-off itself but also from weakened absorption capacity. CryptoQuant analysts point out that when long-term holders sold Bitcoin at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, other buyers would step in to support the price, but this trend seems to have changed.
05 Survival strategies for ordinary investors
In the face of significant movements by whales, ordinary investors should remain calm and avoid blindly following the trend. I have a few specific suggestions:
First, observe rather than imitate. Your risk tolerance and capital scale are vastly different from those of whales. Whales can withstand losses of millions of dollars, while ordinary investors could be wiped out as a result.
Secondly, examine your own leverage level. Check if your liquidation line is safe, maintaining a price buffer of over 30% should be the baseline. In the highly volatile cryptocurrency market, high leverage is like a ticking time bomb.
Finally, learn to distinguish between signals and noise. A single reduction is just a data point; continuous reductions may form a trend. The market is never short of FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) and FOMO (fear of missing out), but what is lacking is a clear risk awareness.
As the market continues to fluctuate, whales' position management strategies are also constantly adjusting. As of the time of writing, Ethereum's price hovers around $3,069, just a step away from 'Big Brother's' liquidation line. This is not just a stress test for him alone; it is also a litmus test for the overall market's leverage level.
Michael Saylor's Strategy company continues to accelerate its Bitcoin accumulation, currently holding over 640,000 Bitcoins, accounting for more than 3% of the circulating supply. True whales are players who adhere to their investment beliefs amidst storms.
In this whale action, do you choose to reduce positions to lock in profits, hold positions thinking this is just normal volatility, or take the opposite approach and view the whales' panic as your opportunity?
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