The Bitcoin price is trading around $89,700, nearly flat on the day and about 2% lower over the past week. At first glance, the price looks weak. But something interesting is happening beneath the surface.
Large Bitcoin holders are quietly retreating. The support from whales is declining; on-chain data shows that they have been persistently selling over the past weeks. Nevertheless, Bitcoin has not dropped significantly. That resilience is important, as another on-chain signal now indicates that selling pressure may be easing, despite the indifference of the whales.
Whales are selling, but overall pressure is nearing exhaustion.
Data on Bitcoin whale addresses shows clear weakness. The 30-day difference of whale addresses with 1,000–10,000 BTC has dropped to -72, the lowest level since late November. The total number of whales is also close to monthly lows. This confirms that large holders are reducing their positions rather than building more.
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Note: these whales are primarily shifting to ETH, which shows more optimism around the second-largest crypto.
Normally, this behavior leads to deeper corrections. But that is not the case now.
One possible reason is the Bitcoin Seller Exhaustion Constant, a Glassnode metric that combines the loss-making behavior of sellers with price volatility. It shows periods when many sellers are at a loss, but volatility remains low. Historically, local BTC bottoms with low risk often occur with this combination.
This metric is now around 0.019, a level last seen around April 5, when Bitcoin was trading around $83,500. In the six weeks that followed, the price rose by more than 33% to nearly $111,600. The current figure is slightly lower and clearly falls within the same historical exhaustion zone.
This does not guarantee a rally, but it does suggest that the downside risk is decreasing.
Bitcoin price levels that determine the next step.
Despite the selling wave from whales, Bitcoin remains above $89,250. This is an important support level. As long as this zone holds on daily closing prices, bears will struggle to take over.
If Bitcoin reclaims $91,320, momentum will grow quickly. This clears the way to $94,660, where the previous supply lies. A convincing breakout there brings market sentiment back to the bulls.
The boundary is clear. A daily closing price below $89,250 weakens the exhaustion thesis and opens the door to $87,570 and $85,900.
