On one side are the plummeting prices and fleeing whales, while on the other side are soaring burn rates and an increase in active community addresses. The fate of SHIB is far more complex than simply 'live or die.'
'Meme coins are dead.' When CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju threw out this viewpoint, the entire cryptocurrency market was listening. Indeed, from the surface data, Shiba Inu (SHIB) seems to be rapidly heading in this direction — the price has dropped 90% from its historical peak, down 78% from its 2024 high, and daily trading volume has decreased by 62% from its 2024 high.
But as an analyst who has been tracking on-chain data long-term, I find that the real story is much more complicated. When we delve into the details of the on-chain data, the story of SHIB is far from what can be summarized as 'life or death.'
01 Market appearance: SHIB's winter
From the price trend, SHIB is indeed in deep trouble. In October 2025, the price of SHIB fell to $0.00001013, plummeting nearly 80% from its peak in 2024 and down over 88% from its historical high.
This sharp decline is not an isolated incident but a microcosm of the entire meme coin sector retreating. Pepe's market value evaporated by over $7.1 billion, and popular meme coins like Official Trump and Pudgy Penguins saw double-digit declines this year.
The 'Altcoin Season Index', which measures the activity of altcoins, has dropped to a historic low of 26, while Bitcoin's dominance has surpassed 58%, reaching a new high since 2023. Funds are flowing from high-risk meme coins to core assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The technical outlook is equally frustrating. SHIB's price has been below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages for six consecutive months, forming a typical 'bearish alignment'. The daily chart shows a descending triangle pattern, which is usually seen as a 'continuation signal for decline'.
02 On-chain data: Another SHIB story
However, when we delve into on-chain data, we find a starkly different narrative.
Despite a 69.6% drop in large transaction volume, SHIB's daily active addresses increased by 3.9%, indicating that retail interest is still rising. This means that ordinary investors' attention to SHIB has not completely faded.
Even more striking is the destruction dynamics. In August 2025, SHIB's burn rate surged by 5800%, with 4.12 million SHIB permanently removed from circulation. Recent data again shows a daily burn rate surge of 530%, with 37.53 million SHIB being burned.
To date, 410 trillion SHIB have been permanently burned, reducing the circulating supply to 583.31 trillion. This deflationary mechanism may provide long-term support for the price.
Whale behavior also shows a duality. On one hand, the number of addresses holding over 100 trillion SHIB has decreased from 12 to 5; on the other hand, Arkham data shows that an anonymous wallet associated with Coinbase Prime doubled its SHIB holdings in one day, currently holding 193.4 billion SHIB, worth about $2.37 million.
03 Ecosystem construction: SHIB's transformation efforts
The SHIB team has been striving to transform from a 'meme coin' to a 'utility coin', but the results are mixed.
The performance of the core project Shibarium's Layer 2 network is particularly disappointing. DeFi Llama data shows that Shibarium has attracted only 18 developers, with total locked value dropping to $878,000, less than 0.01% of the Base network. The stablecoin sector is completely absent, with no mainstream stablecoins deployed to this network.
Shibarium recently faced a security crisis, with its core decentralized application ShibaSwap being hacked, forcing the team to suspend bridging services, resulting in a near halt of network activity.
But there are also bright spots in the ecosystem. ShibaSwap's TVL increased from $3.94 million at the end of April 2025 to $4.5 million by the end of May, growing 14.2% in 30 days. ShibariumScan confirmed that daily transaction volume has consistently exceeded 4.5 million, indicating that the network has some foundational utility.
The community is also driving new ecosystem projects. The governance token TREAT was launched in January 2025, aimed at being the 'key to unlock all enhancements of the ecosystem'. WOOF Wars: Farming 2.0 introduced an interactive experience of 'vote, earn, win', attempting to innovate the liquidity mining model.
04 Real challenges: Structural issues SHIB faces
Setting aside price fluctuations, SHIB faces several deep-seated challenges:
Firstly, there is a highly concentrated holding structure. The top 100 addresses hold over 65% of the circulating supply, which means a few whales can easily manipulate prices, undermining ordinary investors' confidence.
Secondly, there is insufficient practicality. Although the team is working hard to build the ecosystem, SHIB's main use cases are still limited to NFT trading and in-game purchases, lacking widespread practical application scenarios. Compared to Dogecoin, which has been accepted by large enterprises like Tesla, SHIB's commercial applications remain limited.
Thirdly, there is an emotion-driven characteristic. The core logic of meme coins, 'emotion-driven', is inherently fragile. When the market is in a bull phase, 'hitching a ride on trends' can quickly push prices up; however, when the market enters a consolidation or bear phase, investors focus more on the actual value of assets, exposing the 'three noes' problems of meme coins: 'no application, no cash flow, no technological innovation'.
05 Future outlook: Will SHIB disappear in 2026?
Back to the core question: Will SHIB disappear in 2026?
My view is: it will not completely disappear, but it may become further marginalized.
From an existential perspective, SHIB has strong brand recognition and a community foundation (SHIB Army), held by over 1.51 million wallets. This community cohesion is not going to disappear overnight. Historically, many cryptocurrencies have regained attention after long periods of stagnation.
However, from the perspective of importance, SHIB is likely to continue to give way to more practical cryptocurrencies. The overall market is shifting to focus on actual value rather than speculative narratives, a trend that may accelerate in 2026.
Multiple analysis agencies predict SHIB's price range for 2026 to be $0.0000047-$0.000040, with a huge range of volatility. This means they believe SHIB will continue to exist, but its prospects are highly uncertain.
Three possible scenarios for SHIB's future:
Optimistic scenario: The cryptocurrency market as a whole thrives, breakthroughs in SHIB ecosystem construction occur, large enterprises begin to accept SHIB payments, and prices appreciate significantly.
Neutral scenario: The cryptocurrency market grows steadily, SHIB development continues but adoption is limited, and value remains volatile.
Pessimistic scenario: The cryptocurrency market is sluggish, SHIB's development progress is limited, further losing market share, and value declines significantly.
The future SHIB may not completely disappear, but it may shift from being the 'protagonist' to a 'supporting role', seeking a more suitable niche in the vast cryptocurrency ecosystem.
The road to transformation is full of challenges, but one thing is certain: in the cryptocurrency world, never make a final conclusion on an asset with a strong community. After all, from the historical low in March 2021 to the historical high in October 2021, SHIB once created a miracle of a 21,600,000% increase.
The cryptocurrency market is never short of surprises. Follow Ake for more first-hand news and precise insights into the crypto space, becoming your navigator in the crypto world; learning is your greatest wealth!#巨鲸动向 #美联储降息
