The current market is stuck between $95,000 and $85,000, repeatedly grinding with no sense of direction.
Yesterday, data showed that Bitcoin's network hash rate dropped by 7% in one go, with about 400,000 mining machines going offline—such signals usually indicate that some miners can no longer bear the cost pressure, and market liquidity has clearly shrunk.
The reasons for the decline are not hard to sort out: on the 19th, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates, along with the U.S. non-farm payroll and CPI data being released this week. The market is concerned about whether the Federal Reserve will slow down its easing pace after three consecutive rate cuts.
Interestingly, however, there is funding on Polymarket betting that next year's rate cuts will exceed the number indicated in the Federal Reserve's dot plot. If tonight's non-farm payroll shows new jobs below the expected 50,000, U.S. Treasury bonds may again draw blood from risk assets, and the cryptocurrency market is likely to remain under pressure.
Personally, I believe that for the market to truly recover, we may have to wait until Powell steps down and the Federal Reserve changes leadership. Right now, I have a long position at $90,000, currently slightly in the red but not panicking.
In this volatile market, high leverage is equivalent to suicide; it’s better to lower leverage or adopt a grid strategy to capture small profits from range fluctuations.
Tonight's specific operational ideas have already been shared internally to guide fans in positioning. If you want to follow tonight's layout, the top has my chatroom @华尔街老陈 .
