After the data from last week came out, it was said that there are tough days ahead, but looking at the second half of the month from the middle of the month, the core judgment remains unchanged:

The market is still using time to exchange for space, rather than directly bottoming out and rebounding.

Looking at last Friday's pullback together with the period from early November to late November, it resembles a round of time-based adjustment, with the purpose still being to kill valuations, and a second round of panic cannot be ruled out, but it is not a systemic risk.

The sources of adjustment mainly come from two points:

First, AI sentiment has been hit again. The problem with Oracle lies in slow order conversion, cash flow consumption, and delivery delays, and the market continues to worry whether AI spending can be converted into real income; Broadcom is more about erroneous killing, with no issues in guidance, but concerns are focused on how full capacity will affect growth in 2026.

Second, the dense period of events. After the interest rate meeting, the second half of this month is filled with major events, amplifying volatility, and funds naturally seek to avoid risks.

Key variables to watch this week and in the second half of the month:

1) Economic data (non-farm payrolls + inflation)

The data needs to be "bad just right" to be favorable:

Non-farm payrolls not exceeding expectations, rising unemployment rate, inflation below expectations.

The real concern lies in inflation—once it exceeds expectations, it will continue to suppress next year's easing expectations and push up long-term interest rates. The important backdrop for last week's pullback was the rapid rebound in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield.

2) Bank of Japan

The interest rate hike itself has limited impact; the real focus is on the future path.

Personal expectation: another one or two hikes, very slow pace, with the endpoint likely around 1%. Currently, there is no large-scale capital flowing back from dollars to yen.

3) Congressional games (healthcare subsidies)

The market basically defaults to dragging it to January, with little impact this month;

The real risk lies in whether the deadlock continues in January, which relates to subsequent expectations of government shutdown.

4) Supreme Court tariff ruling

If deemed unconstitutional, tariff reductions would benefit businesses and inflation, but fiscal pressure would increase; the timing may drag into early next year.

Strategy: If this week is an emotional shock rather than a structural change, one can buy the dip.

Subsequent turning points to pay attention to: Nomination of the new Federal Reserve Chairman;

RMP advancing liquidity marginal improvement, bank reserves rebounding;

Christmas market (historical win rate is relatively high);

The unbinding of SLR in early January suppressing long-term interest rates;

The commercialization potential of GPT-5.2 in the B2B sector.

The pace is slow, but it is not going bad; it is more like making room for the next phase of the market.