This year's fiscal and monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is likely to be a baseline version of a 50 basis points rate cut for the entire year.

A more realistic path might be:

In the first quarter, symbolically cut by 25 basis points, then pause for a while, and before the midterm elections, cut another 25 basis points. The pace won't be quick, but there is enough room.

There is actually a point of competition here, primarily concerning the support rate for the midterm elections.

If Trump's poll numbers weaken, it's possible that the policy will tilt in a more radical direction, such as increasing direct subsidies to residents on the fiscal side, and additionally cutting another 25 basis points on top of the original 50 basis points. But this can't be anticipated in advance; we can only observe the polls as we go.

Many people feel that macro judgments are not useful for trading, but I actually find them very useful.

The reason I was bold enough to heavily invest in non-ferrous metals in 2025 is fundamentally because I judged there was at least a 75 basis points rate cut space for the whole year, and the results also confirmed that 2025 was indeed a big year for non-ferrous metals.

Looking into 2026, if it is a 50 basis points baseline rate cut environment, the main line will actually remain unchanged.

Non-ferrous metals and gold are still directions that cannot be avoided; we need to keep a core position and accumulate gold, silver, and copper gradually during pullbacks.

On the offensive side, I prefer to allocate positions to biotechnology and AI.

One is a typical interest rate-sensitive asset, and the other is a certain industrial trend, both with elasticity.

The overall position idea is also very simple:

Non-ferrous metals as the foundation, with healthcare and AI responsible for the offense, regardless of whether the market is good or not, we won't be too passive.