Bitcoin, gold, and silver remain the focus this week ahead of the US Consumer Price Index on Thursday and the expected interest rate hike from the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
With macro narratives approaching, analysts indicate imminent volatility for BTC, XAU, and XAG prices.
Price forecasts for Bitcoin, gold, and silver ahead of key macro headlines.
The US Consumer Price Index on Thursday and the almost certain interest rate hike from the Bank of Japan on Friday put the price of Bitcoin and safe-haven commodities like gold and silver in a state of volatility. In this context, the outlook for Bitcoin, XAU, and XAG this week is as follows.
The relief rally weakens amid the bearish price structure of Bitcoin.
The daily chart for Bitcoin shows a counter-trend recovery rather than a confirmed bullish reversal. The price has exited an ascending channel, suggesting that the relief rally may weaken following the sharp decline from the peak of $126,000.
While the short-term structure improves, Bitcoin remains beneath the key moving averages, including the 50-day and 100-day EMA at $95,601 and $101,022, respectively. These levels continuously track Bitcoin's price from the upside, forming dynamic resistance.
The Relative Strength Index is recovering from the overbought territory and is currently stabilizing near the mid-forties, with a pending buy signal indicating an improvement in short-term momentum. This buy signal will be executed once the purple range (RSI) crosses above the signal line (yellow range).
Meanwhile, the MACD line remains above the signal line, indicating that bullish momentum is still technically dominant. However, sellers continue to show strength as this indicator sits in negative territory.
As the histogram bars contract and fade from their green color, this only indicates a weakening of buying pressure, not that bulls have surrendered. Note that the histogram remains in positive territory.
Analysis of the bullish volume profile (green horizontal bars) reveals significant upper demand with buyers waiting in the late drop to interact with Bitcoin above the psychological level of $90,000.
For Bitcoin to transition into a sustained bullish phase, it must break above the lower boundary of the ascending channel and reclaim the $100,000 level. Traders looking to capitalize on this potential rally should consider waiting until the candlestick closes above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $98,018.
Until then, the market prefers to trade with limited range recoveries, with an increased risk of rejection at resistance levels. The broader trend remains cautious, but early signs of stability are emerging.
The channel for rising gold prices is nearing its upper limit with sell signals emerging.
Like Bitcoin, the 4-hour gold chart highlights a well-defined ascending channel, with the price currently heading towards the all-time high of XAU at $4,381.
Structurally, the trend remains bullish, with gold continuing to make higher highs and higher lows while respecting channel support throughout November and December.
However, momentum has started to diverge. The RSI flipped from high levels, hovering around the mid to upper sixties, and a clear pending sell signal indicates a waning of bullish momentum. This sell signal will be executed once the relative strength index crosses below the signal line.
This does not mean a reversal of direction, but rather an increased likelihood of a pullback towards channel support. Such a move will provide latecomers in XAU with a reduced entry into the gold trade.
Key Fibonacci retracement levels reinforce this view. A corrective move towards $4,265 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level) or $4,193 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level) will remain firmly in place as the trend continues.
A deeper correction to $4,134 will only become concerning if accompanied by a channel breakdown, nullifying the bullish thesis once the price breaks and closes below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Unless gold decisively breaks and closes below $4,076 during the four-hour period, the current setup favors short-term consolidation or corrective bearish movement.
The medium-term bias remains bullish, but momentum traders should exercise caution when chasing peaks at this stage.
The strength of the silver price breakout faces the risk of overstretching.
The daily chart for silver shows a strong bullish breakout, with the price of XAG rising towards the resistance zone between $64-$65. The broader trend structure remains decisively bullish, supported by a rising midline of the Bollinger range and continued closes above the key moving averages.
The price of silver has respected higher highs and higher lows since mid-year, confirming the continuation of the strong trend.
However, momentum indicators suggest a risk of near-term exhaustion. The Relative Strength Index near 74 indicates overbought conditions, which have historically been associated with pullbacks or short-term consolidations rather than immediate trend reversals.
Meanwhile, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) remains positive and is expanding, indicating that bullish momentum is still present beneath the surface.
Key bearish levels to watch are at $56.90, with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A surface correction to this area is likely to be constructive, allowing momentum to reset while maintaining the broader bullish trend.
However, a breakout of the indicator below $52.10 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) would create bullish momentum. The bullish outlook will only be invalidated if the price drops below $44.56, establishing a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
On the positive side, a clean daily close above $65 could open the door to psychological extension levels that exceed current expectations.
Overall, silver remains in a strong bullish regime, but traders should expect volatility and the possibility of a mean reversion before the next sustained rise. Risk management becomes crucial at these elevated levels, especially for late entries.
