Since October 30, 2025, Bitcoin has been trading below the Short-Term Holders’ (STH) realized price of $104K, placing the most recent market participants under sustained loss pressure. This cohort, highly sensitive to price movements, often defines short-term market dynamics, making its behavior particularly relevant in the current context.
STH are addresses that have held BTC for less than 155 days. Their profitability is assessed using the STH MVRV, a metric that measures unrealized gains or losses by comparing the current market price with the average acquisition price of this group. When MVRV falls below 1, it indicates that STH are holding unrealized losses (see chart).
Currently, STH MVRV ranges between 0.87 and 0.90, confirming that recent buyers are underwater. At the same time, Bitcoin is trading around $89,500, clearly below the STH realized price, which sits near $104K. This gap highlights a significant divergence between the market price and the short-term capital cost basis.
In parallel, Realized Profit & Loss data shows that since October 30, STH exiting the market have been realizing losses. The average High Loss is around -12.6%, pointing to an active capitulation process rather than a passive holding phase.
From an on-chain perspective, the combination of unrealized and realized losses suggests that market rebounds are being used to reduce exposure, not to accumulate. Since mid-November, Bitcoin has remained largely range-bound around the $90,000 level, while short-term capital continues to experience sustained pressure.
Conclusion:
Historically, prolonged periods in which STH remain at a loss tend to coincide with weak-hand cleansing phases and supply transfer toward higher-conviction holders.
As long as Bitcoin fails to reclaim the STH realized price near $104,000, market conditions are likely to remain uncomfortable for recent entrants, a structure more consistent with a transitional phase than with a bearish market.
By Carmelo Alemán
Written by Carmelo_Alemán
