🔥How will tonight's non-farm data affect market expectations?
Tonight at 21:30, a "delayed" but crucial U.S. non-farm payroll report is about to be released. It is not only employment data but also a key piece of evidence for judging the Federal Reserve's subsequent policies.
Why is this report so special?
1. Filling the gaps: The new employment data for October and November will be released simultaneously, filling the previous data gap and presenting a more complete picture of the labor market.
2. Logic shift: In the current environment, the market may view "moderately weak data" as good news, as it could enhance expectations for a policy shift.
Data expectations and impacts
⭐️Market expects about 40,000 new jobs in November, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.4%.
💥If the data meets or falls below this moderate expectation, it may strengthen the logic for rate cuts and provide support for market sentiment;
💥Conversely, if the data unexpectedly comes in strong, it may temporarily dampen optimistic expectations.
This report is like a "quiet catalyst," and its results will provide clearer guidance for the macro narrative at the end of the year.
