Morning Share
Good morning, those who shorted last night should be quite satisfied. Recently, the US stock market has been dragging down cryptocurrencies after opening. Last Friday's opening was down, and this Monday's opening is also down; the situation is not optimistic.
Brother Ma Ji has already become a weather vane: increasing long positions leads to a drop; reducing long positions leads to a rise. The operators are taking advantage of Brother Ma Ji.
1011 Insider has not yet closed long positions, currently facing an approximate floating loss of around 40 million.
Today, trading remains challenging. At 9:30 PM, non-farm payroll data will be released. While the Federal Reserve has not confirmed whether to raise or lower interest rates, major news always brings significant volatility. Tonight is bound to be a night of turmoil.
From the perspective of the US stock market, both the Nasdaq and S&P closed down, but the extent was minimal. As mentioned before, when the US stock market drops slightly, the crypto circle experiences a waterfall effect. A significant drop in the US stock market would end the crypto circle. The oscillation pattern of the US stocks was broken in yesterday's decline, and futures are still heading south. If tonight's news exceeds expectations, it will lead to a direct waterfall effect.
Looking solely at the crypto circle, the large-scale oscillation trend of Bitcoin has been completely breached, breaking below the significant support level of 864. It is now consolidating at the resistance level of 855.
Currently, Bitcoin is expected to form a bearish flag pattern, with a high likelihood of testing 820 or even 800. If the support at 800 fails, it will directly drop to 740. If it holds, a second test may occur, and there is still a chance to look up at a probability of 100,000.
There are no signals to enter for the short cycle, so only left-side orders can be placed.
BTC, being more conservative, can look to enter long near 840 (taking a long position carries high risk but high reward), while a more comfortable position for shorting should be around 870. However, according to the target trend, chances for entry may not be granted; thus, one can only wait for right-side entry signals.
ETH's pattern is weaker. This week's large cycle is a standard bearish flag adjustment. After breaking the trend line last Friday, it has not looked back, forming a nested head and shoulders pattern.
If one wants to long ETH, it must be done more conservatively, as ETH's volatility is large, compounded by the currently poor large cycle pattern.
The first position is 2800, the second position is 2700; both of these positions are important swing points and also round numbers.
A slightly aggressive approach could consider entering small positions at the resistance level of 2850.$ETH
