The end-of-year collapse of Bitcoin is imminent, and privacy coin ZEC cannot escape the misfortune of a correction!
The crypto market is ushering in a potential "Black Christmas"! With the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting on December 18-19 looming, market expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike are nearly set in stone, pushing the benchmark interest rate to 0.75%—the highest level in 30 years. Under the shadow of a stronger yen and tightening global liquidity, $BTC has felt the chill first: last night, dragged down by a more than 8% plunge in MicroStrategy's stock price, BTC briefly fell below the crucial support level of $85,000, triggering panic selling across the market.
The historical lessons are alarming. Since Japan began its rate hike cycle in 2024, every tightening of policy has hit crypto assets like a precision strike: after ending negative interest rates for the first time in March 2024, BTC plummeted over 23%; after further hikes in July, the decline widened to 26%; and the rate hike in January 2025 triggered a brutal adjustment of over 30%, with each downward force being stronger than the last. The wave of risk aversion brought about by the reversal of this "yen carry trade" has become Bitcoin's "archenemy." Now, compounded by the year-end holiday effect where trading liquidity is already thin, if this rate hike arrives as expected, the market is likely to face a deeper correction—any rebound seems weak, and reaching the high of $94,500 now feels like a luxury, making a sprint to $95,000 almost impossible in the short term. Bear market signals are already flashing: patient short sellers may witness the $80,000 threshold collapse in the first quarter of next year.
Privacy coin representative $ZEC is also hanging by a thread. Currently, the price hovers around the $400 mark, clearly entering a correction phase recently. Last week, it barely closed with a green candle, but with shrinking volume and a long upper shadow, it shows that the bullish rebound is weak and powerless. Under the "Sword of Damocles" of Japan's rate hikes, the probability of hitting new highs this week is extremely low. Placing short orders above $450 has become a wise strategy; from a long-term perspective, a drop to $300 for ZEC, creating a new low for the phase, is almost a foregone conclusion. Right now, one just needs to sit tight and wait for the short sellers' feast to begin.
The crypto winter solstice has arrived, and the liquidity "strangulation" is accelerating; this blow from the Bank of Japan may become the biggest black swan by the end of 2025!
