“Will the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike trigger a black swan event? Should I liquidate my assets and run?”
First, let’s state the conclusion: it hasn't reached the point of liquidating assets, nor is there a need to be overly frightened.
This time, the interest rate hike in Japan is not about what Japan wants to do, but rather—America is forcing it to act.
Many people overlook a core logic: for decades, Japan has been surviving on extremely low interest rates, resulting in the long-term depreciation of the yen.
Once the yen depreciates, Japan has to intervene in the exchange rate.
The question arises—
What will Japan use to intervene?
The answer is: selling foreign exchange reserves.
And what is the largest part of Japan's foreign exchange reserves?
U.S. Treasury bonds.
Japan is one of the largest overseas holders of U.S. debt,
with a scale exceeding one trillion dollars.
Every time the yen plummets, Japan intervenes to stabilize the market,
which may involve selling U.S. debt to exchange for dollars.
Who is this least friendly to?
That's right, to the U.S. itself.
Once U.S. debt is sold,
yields surge,
the cost of borrowing for the U.S. government increases,
debt pressure is magnified,
and it could even trigger a chain reaction.
So now when you look at this issue,
the logic becomes clear:
The U.S. does not want Japan to frequently sell U.S. debt,
therefore, it demands Japan to raise interest rates in return.
The only goal of raising interest rates is:
to let the yen appreciate moderately,
narrow the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan,
and reduce the necessity for Japan to intervene in the exchange rate.
Therefore, this interest rate hike in Japan,
is not a sudden whim,
nor is it an active attempt to stir things up,
but rather a passive, restrained action shackled by constraints.
How does this look in the crypto space?
In the short term, sentiment will certainly be used as negative news,
the market will tremble, will shake, and will scare retail investors.
But this is not the kind of logic that leads to a “systemic collapse.”
What really needs to be cautioned against is not the interest rate hike in Japan itself,
but the change in the rhythm of global liquidity.
Ask yourself: are you willing to be a vegetable for life? Or do you want to be the one who laughs last?
The carp leaps over the dragon gate👉@顶级交易员轩哥 Action speaks louder than words
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