Markets are preparing for the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November. Against this backdrop, Federal Reserve Board member Stephen Miran criticized the prevailing view of inflation's resilience.
His comments came just days before the official statistics are released on Thursday. This economic data from the U.S. could significantly impact investor sentiment in Bitcoin.
Revisions of market expectations
Data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows a shift in trader sentiment. Market participants are revising their interest rate bets. The probability that the rate will remain unchanged at the Fed meeting in January 2026 is estimated at 75.6%.
This is happening against the backdrop of Miran's statements that core inflation has already approached the Fed's target of 2%. According to him, a significant portion of the residual excess is due to statistical distortions rather than excess demand.
"Core inflation is already very close to the Fed's target of 2%," Miran stated in his message on platform X. "Most of the excess over the target inflation level is due to the peculiarities of the statistical measurement process, rather than excess demand."
The issue of accounting for housing and service costs
At the center of Miran's argument is inflation in the housing sector. This is one of the largest and most persistent components of core price growth indicators.
The regulator's representative noted an important detail. The Fed's preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index records housing costs for all renters. This means that the indicator lags behind actual market rental rates, which only change when leases are renewed. According to Miran, this lag currently distorts the overall picture.
The official also touched on the topic of inflation in the services sector excluding housing. As a key example, he highlighted portfolio management fees. The politician claims that these fees artificially inflate the base PCE. This occurs despite the long-term decline in fees in the asset management industry.
The reason lies in the calculation methodology. Fees are measured based on the volume of assets under management. Rising stock markets mechanically raise the measured prices. This can occur even if actual consumer expenditures are decreasing.
"It would be unreasonable on our part to chase statistical anomalies instead of focusing on real consumer prices," Miran warned in his speech, suggesting that the policy risks becoming excessively tight if it reacts to such distortions.
The impact of tariffs and analysts' forecasts
On the issue of goods inflation, Miran challenged the widely held belief about the impact of U.S. tariffs. He does not consider tariffs to be the main driver of the recent price increases.
Relying on trade elasticity studies, he made a compelling argument. Most of the tariff burden falls on exporters. This leads to a relatively small and likely temporary impact on consumer prices.
Even with conservative assumptions, he estimated the effect on consumer prices to be about two-tenths of a percent. Ideally, this is closer to statistical noise than to a prolonged inflationary impulse.
Miran's viewpoint is shared by Anna Wong of Bloomberg Economics. She pointed to leading indicators suggesting a resumption of disinflation in the next six months.
Wong noted that core CPI for goods is declining again. This trend may continue until mid-2026. The expert added that markets may be underestimating the scale of rate declines in the future.
"The Fed may lower rates next year," Wong wrote on platform X, asserting that if these signals are confirmed, expectations for policy easing in 2026 remain too conservative.
These comments sharpen the discussion within the Fed. The regulator will have to decide whether to continue fighting the inflationary pressure of 2022 or to respond to current conditions. The upcoming CPI report will show how justified the claims of inflated inflation indicators are.
