Tonight's non-farm payroll data is coming in strong, and gold needs to strengthen its risk defense line, strictly adhering to risk control rules. Before the data is released: the trend is mainly oscillating with a slight bullish bias.
1. Expectation level: This time the core indicators of non-farm payrolls present an expected combination of "employment weakness + wage stickiness"—the expected non-farm employment population for November is only 50,000 (on the low side), the unemployment rate is expected to be 4.4% (at a relatively high level), while the year-on-year/month-on-month average hourly wage is expected to be 3.6%/0.3% (wages still have stickiness). This combination will lead the market to bet on the Federal Reserve's easing expectations in advance, providing support for gold.
2. Technical linkage: If gold has not previously broken through key support (such as the 4260 you mentioned), the market will maintain a slightly bullish mindset based on the support level, testing resistance levels of 4300, 4320, etc., with a high probability of oscillating with a slight bullish trend before the data is released.
II. After the data is released: two-way fluctuations, looking at the deviation between actual values and expectations.
1. If the data is below expectations (bullish for gold)
- Non-farm employment population < 50,000, unemployment rate > 4.4%: indicates that the U.S. job market is weakening, and expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates will increase, causing gold to quickly break through 4300, 4320, and even further test higher resistance.
- Wage data below expectations (year-on-year < 3.6%/month-on-month < 0.3%): inflationary pressures ease, which will also strengthen easing expectations and boost gold prices.
2. If the data exceeds expectations (bearish for gold)
- Non-farm employment population > 50,000, unemployment rate < 4.4%: labor market resilience exceeds expectations, cooling expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and gold will break below the 4260 support, testing lower support levels of 4240, 4220, etc.
- Wage data higher than expectations: concerns about inflation stickiness will worsen, further suppressing gold trends.
3. If the data meets expectations: gold will likely maintain its original oscillation range (4260-4320), with narrower fluctuations, needing to wait for subsequent signals from other fundamentals. #黄金
