🌍 One of the biggest secrets of the global financial system is ending
For over 30 years, Japan exported the cheapest money on Earth.
Near-zero rates. Unlimited liquidity.
Borrow in yen → buy stocks, bonds, real estate, crypto.
Everything.
That era is ending now.
📊 Facts almost no one is talking about:
• BOJ ETF holdings: $534B
• Unwinding timeline: 100+ years
• Probability of a Dec 19 rate hike: ~90%
• New policy rate: 0.75% (highest since 1995)
• Japan’s US Treasury holdings: $1.189T
• 10Y JGB yield: 1.96% (highest since 2007)
• 30–40Y yields: all-time highs
The pattern markets hate to admit:
• March 2024 BOJ hike → BTC -23%
• July 2024 BOJ hike → BTC -26%
• January 2025 BOJ hike → BTC -31%
December 19 is approaching.
What changed this time?
The BOJ is not slowing asset purchases.
It’s reversing them.
This is unprecedented.
A major central bank has become a net seller of QE assets.
💥 Why this matters:
The yen carry trade funded:
• tech stocks
• bond markets
• crypto
• pension funds
• leveraged strategies worldwide
That funding cost is now 0.75% — and rising.
The problem:
Markets priced in the rate hike.
They did not price in the consequences.
Key stress levels:
• USD/JPY < 150 → margin pressure
• USD/JPY < 145 → forced deleveraging
📆 December 19, 2025 may mark the beginning of a process where
Japan’s century-long liquidity empire starts to unwind.
📌 This is not an event.
It’s a regime shift.
