Non-farm alert sounded: gold under pressure at high levels, data trends may be an 'enticement trap'.
This non-farm data must be approached with caution, as there are two core logics that directly target risk:
Firstly, the data is the 'fuse' of market volatility. The performance of non-farm payrolls directly influences expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts; any values that deviate from expectations will be magnified infinitely by the market, triggering intense capital speculation.
Secondly, gold prices are standing on the 'edge of a cliff'. Current gold prices are hovering at historical highs, and market sentiment is as tense as a drawn bowstring, extremely fragile. Whether the data is positive or negative, it could become the last straw that breaks the market's back—either triggering profit-taking by bulls or igniting a concentrated sell-off by bears, with short-term volatility likely to far exceed normal levels.
Under the dual risk of 'data sensitivity + high pressure at high levels', the optimal strategy is to not gamble, not watch, and not operate, but to wait for the market sentiment to settle.
Key understanding: The underlying logic of the divergence between domestic and international gold prices
There is a price difference between domestic and international gold prices, which is not an illusion, but is determined by two independent pricing systems, directly affecting domestic trading not to blindly follow the international market.
First, the pricing mechanisms are different. The conversion between international gold prices (e.g., $4303 per ounce) and domestic gold prices (e.g., ¥970 per gram) must consider multiple factors such as exchange rates, import costs, taxes, etc., while also taking into account the impact of independent sentiment in the domestic market.
Second, the volatility of premiums is unpredictable. Normally, domestic gold prices have a certain premium relative to international gold prices, but during major events like non-farm data releases, the instantaneous surges and drops in international gold prices can be out of sync with the speed and magnitude of the domestic market's response, leading to sharp fluctuations in premiums, causing the actual trading price to be severely disconnected from the theoretical calculation value.
Third, there is differentiation in product characteristics. Products like accumulated gold, financing gold, Shanghai gold, T+D, etc., have further differentiated quotes due to differences in fees, spreads, and liquidity. The single fluctuation in the international market manifests in vastly different ways when transmitted to various domestic products.
Therefore, 'focusing on rhythm rather than points' is the core of trading—traders do not need to be 'scientists' who make precise calculations, but should be 'hunters' who capture market sentiment shifts.
Action guide: Observation strategies for different trading types
'Observation' is by no means passive waiting, but an active vigil with a clear plan. Different trading groups can operate according to the following strategies:
- Physical gold investors: The most worry-free choice is to completely ignore short-term fluctuations. Non-farm data, daily ups and downs, and other noises are unrelated to the core needs of long-term collection and value preservation of physical gold. Not monitoring the market is the best strategy.
- Accumulated gold and financing gold investors: Although these products have no leverage, there is an objective spread between buying and selling prices. It is recommended to actively avoid trading windows for a few hours before and after the release of non-farm data, and to make decisions based on long-term trends after market sentiment stabilizes and quotes return to rationality.
- Shanghai gold, gold T+D, and London gold investors: The leveraged nature magnifies risks, requiring the strictest observation discipline—try to stay out of the market or watch with a light position before data is released. Once the market shows a clear direction (such as effectively breaking key resistance levels or stabilizing key support levels), follow the trend. Survival is always the top priority in leveraged trading.
Future operations: Entry signals after observation
The market is never short of opportunities; observation is to capture trading moments with higher certainty. During the waiting period, three core questions must be clarified:
1. Anchor signals: Pay close attention to whether the gold price can hold above previous highs or fall below key support levels after the data release; this is more instructive than the data itself being bullish or bearish.
2. Make a plan: Plan ahead—if there is a signal for an increase, decide which products to choose, what position size to take, and at what price to tentatively enter; if there is a signal for a decrease, consider whether to enter and in which range to layout long positions.
3. Be patient: The first 15-30 minutes after data release are often the most chaotic and emotional. The true short-term trend usually becomes clear only after the fluctuations. Waiting a bit longer may seem like missing out on short-term opportunities, but it actually helps avoid the risks of blind operations, resulting in a more reasonable entry price.
In the 'perfect storm' of uncertainty and high volatility, giving up on speculation and preserving oneself is by no means cowardly, but a consensus among seasoned traders: many times, the greatest profits come from successful 'non-trading'.
