🔥 Non-farm payroll and unemployment rate both exceeded expectations. U.S. macro data has landed, and the market is quickly correcting expectations.
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In November, both non-farm payroll and unemployment rate exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, reaching a recent high; seasonally adjusted non-farm employment increased by 64,000, slightly above market expectations, but overall still shows a slowdown in employment momentum. At the same time, October retail sales month-on-month rate was only 0%, below expectations, and consumer end is beginning to show signs of fatigue.
After the data was released, the market quickly priced in easing expectations: U.S. stock index futures turned up, the U.S. dollar index fell below 98, the euro and pound strengthened, and gold rebounded in the short term. CME shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in January next year has significantly increased. Overall, employment and consumption are cooling simultaneously, opening up space for a policy shift. Subsequent inflation data and the Fed's attitude will be key to determining the continuity of the market.
