⚙️ Macroeconomic events, how do they cut into the crypto world? The impact of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike
Many people think:
👉 Interest rate hikes are a traditional finance matter
👉 They have no direct relationship with Bitcoin
This is a typical underestimation.
1. The real transmission path: not emotions, but capital
Macroeconomic events affect the crypto market through only two hard channels:
1️⃣ Global capital flow
2️⃣ Market risk appetite
The Bank of Japan happens to be at the intersection of these two channels.
🔁 Core mechanism: Yen carry trade
Long-term logic:
Borrow yen at low interest rates → Exchange for dollars → Buy BTC / US stocks / risk assets
Once the Bank of Japan raises interest rates:
Yen appreciates
Borrowing costs rise
Arbitrage models fail
👉 The result is only one:
Sell BTC → Exchange for yen → Repay debts
This is not "bearish on Bitcoin,"
but a forced liquidation of capital behavior.
2. Why is this time more dangerous?
Because the market itself is already extremely fragile:
Exchange reserves: at a cyclical low
Market liquidity: extremely thin
Contract leverage ratio: operating at a high level
📉 Any macro disturbance will be amplified into a chain liquidation.
Data has verified:
👉 Since 2024
👉 After the Bank of Japan's first three interest rate hikes
👉 BTC has retraced more than 20% each time
This is not a coincidence, it is a structural problem.
🛡️ During macro-sensitive periods, the only correct risk control mindset
There are only two keywords:
Survival + Anti-fragility
1️⃣ Position & leverage (first priority)
Contract leverage: ≤3 times, or liquidate directly
Spot position: reduce to a level where you can sleep peacefully
👉 Cash is not a missed opportunity, it's an option.
2️⃣ Hard stop loss (unconditional)
Every position must have a stop loss (-8% to -15%)
Execute with conditional orders, do not leave it to emotions
3️⃣ Watch more, act less
Before macro events materialize, doing nothing is the optimal solution
Wait until direction + sentiment are clear before taking action
4️⃣ Psychological management
During macro cycles: technical analysis gives way, narratives fail
Reject FOMO
Reject "the more it falls, the more I want to catch the bottom"
💎 A core summary in one sentence
Short-term dominant force: Global liquidity (Bank of Japan tightening vs Federal Reserve expectations)
Operational priority: Risk control > Profit > Judgment of right or wrong
Long-term perspective (limited to spot):
The deep declines caused by macro shocks,
Are the source of disciplined dollar-cost averaging
