I see comments saying "sentiment can get more bearish" or "sentiment isn't bearish yet".

With all the comparisons to early 2022, and how everyone expects a rejection at the 50 week moving average...

Sentiment is completely different to early 2022.

People were still hopeful, even after bitcoin went from 69k to 32k in January 2022.

They were still looking for a breakout at 48k resistance, before Do Kwons Terra Luna contagion hit.

They were still bullish after a break down to 25k in may 2022.

People only became fearful after 17k in June. And they remained afraid long after the bottom hit at 15k...all the way in to 2023.

Even after 30k hit in 2023, 100% off the lows, people were commenting how there was no liquidity coming, or Gensler would kill bitcoin/crypto.

And again people then got bullish late 2023, or early 2024 in time to buy the top, after bitcoin had already done 3-5x from bear market lows.

My point in all this is to say people look backwards to predict the future using recency bias.

They are always 6-12 months behind, meaning they sell low and buy high.

We are witnessing the same thing again. People are bearish when they should be bullish.