Under the resonance of multiple favorable factors, the A-share market welcomes a repair window. Grasp the volatility rhythm without chasing highs or killing lows.
Before the market opens, the Securities Times emphasized the importance of telling a good 'stock market narrative' and stabilizing market expectations. The timely voice of mainstream media after the continuous adjustment of A-shares has effectively boosted market confidence, injecting key momentum for the repair of the market from an emotional level.
Overnight, the three major U.S. stock indices showed divergent trends. The Nasdaq index turned positive, while the Dow continued its adjustment; however, the sentiment in the tech sector has shown marginal improvement. This trend is expected to transmit to A-shares, significantly reducing the possibility of further declines in tech stocks and the Hang Seng Technology Index in Hong Kong. If the A-share market can shake off the drag of a general decline in tech stocks, market sentiment is likely to see partial repair, and the trend of widespread declines in individual stocks will be curbed.
From a technical perspective, when the A-share index dipped to around 3815 points, it was already in an oversold state, with very limited short-term downside potential. As individual stock sentiment reaches a freezing point, the market has a clear expectation of a turning point, and today, certain sectors are highly likely to initiate a repair process. Popular sectors traditionally follow the cyclical pattern of 'many gains lead to adjustments, deep declines lead to rebounds'. After several days of correction, tech stocks will welcome a phase of rebound window.
It is important to note that the consumer sector has been strong recently under favorable support. If the tech sector initiates a repair today, strong consumer stocks such as retail may show divergence. Despite the market's strong expectations for a consumption recovery next year, the short-term sectors are still in a repeated bottoming stage. The operation should adhere to a low-buy strategy and avoid blindly chasing highs. The investment logic for the tech sector is the same; although concerns about bubbles have repeatedly emerged, the long-term direction remains clear. Pullbacks present opportunities for speculative arbitrage, with the core operational principle being to avoid chasing highs and killing lows.
Overall, the A-share market will enter a rebound repair cycle in the next two days, and some funds have already positioned themselves for low buys ahead of time yesterday. However, caution is needed regarding the potential disturbance from Japan's central bank interest rate hike expectations on Friday. Until the policy is clarified, uncertainties remain in the market. It is advisable to seize the time window from Tuesday to Thursday this week, relying on a low-buy strategy to conduct price arbitrage; after the policy becomes clear on Friday, the trading direction for next week will be clearer. In fact, the market has already digested various potential fluctuations in advance, and the impact when the policy is announced may be weaker than expected.
Currently, there are no signs of a trend reversal in the market, and the rhythm of range-bound fluctuations remains unchanged. Yesterday, the index refreshed its monthly low, which is a typical layout point of 'not advisable to cut losses at the low point'. The market should welcome a repair rebound today. Attention should be paid to the strength of fund follow-up: if the volume moderately expands during the rebound, the repair trend is expected to gradually rotate and spread; if there is a situation of large-scale rising with substantial following funds entering, caution is needed for the risk of divergence in the next day's market.
In summary, in a volatile market, one must adhere to the operational logic of 'low buying during pessimism with shrinking volume, taking profits during widespread rises with expanding volume' to grasp the rhythm and achieve steady profits amid sector rotations.