【2025-12-17】09:00
【Dual Time Frame Trend Tracking System】Short-term Version
**Variety: ETH/USDT (Ethereum)**
1. Direction Determination (1-hour Chart)
- Current Price ≈ 2,948.7 USD
- EMA20 ≈ 2,950.31, EMA50 ≈ 2,987.88 (Price < EMA20 < EMA50)
- MACD: DIF -9.21, DEA -15.75, MACD 6.53 (Green bars have appeared after the death cross and continue to enlarge, strong bearish momentum)
- Price is in a clear downward channel, recent high of 3,177 has broken previous low support of 2,870
- **Direction Determination**: **Bearish Direction** (satisfying Price < EMA20 < EMA50 and MACD green bars continue to enlarge after the death cross)
- Only short positions are allowed, strictly prohibiting counter-trend long positions.
2. Entry Rules (5-minute Chart)
- Price oscillates downward in the range of 2,870-3,000, recently showing a slight rebound before being blocked and falling again
- 5-minute chart shows a rebound to near EMA20/EMA50 (around 2,950-2,960) under pressure, forming a potential **Shooting Star/Engulfing Pattern** (long upper shadow, weak rebound)
- **Preferred Entry**: Bearish direction, enter on a rebound
- **Entry Point**: Short when price rebounds to the 2,950-2,960 area (EMA20/EMA50 resistance area) and is blocked and falls back
- Current price of 2,948 has started to probe lower, can try shorting with a small position near 2,950, confirm volume increase after the drop to add to the position
- Secondary Option: If the recent low near 2,918 is broken, confirm adding to shorts if the rebound does not exceed 2,920-2,930
3. Stop Loss and Take Profit (Fixed Risk Control)
- **Stop Loss**: Recent swing high ≈ 2,966-2,970 (or 20-30 USD above entry point), fixed risk of 1.5% of principal per trade
- **Take Profit**:
- Risk-Reward Ratio ≥ 2:1
- First Take Profit: 50% position exits at 2R (for example, if entry is 2,950 and stop loss is 2,970, then R=20 USD, first TP 2,910)
- Remaining 50% target Fibonacci extension (expansion from recent high of 3,177 to low of 2,870, potential targets at 1.272/1.618 levels ≈ 2,850-2,800, or even lower at 2,700 area)
**Overall Suggestion**: Strictly follow bearish direction, prioritize shorting when rebounding and blocked in the 2,950-2,960 pressure area, low risk and high probability. Currently starting to pull back, can test entry with a small position, wait for K-line pattern + volume confirmation before adding to position. Avoid any long positions and be wary of short-term false rebounds.