Last night, the US non-farm payrolls released data for October and November, with mixed results; overall positive, but not good enough to favor an immediate rate cut in January. The US stock market also remained stagnant without rebounding last night.

The cryptocurrency sector had already priced in this data in advance, declining first as a form of respect. The likelihood of a rebound this week currently seems low.

The bear market has once again confirmed the trend.

Let's take a look at the ETH data.

From the implied volatility (IV), the overall implied volatility is trending downwards, and the risk-reward (RR) ratio is rising, which indicates that the panic of decline has eased, and the IV premium on the put side has somewhat contracted.

From the open interest (OI), the changes on the put side are more significant, with the largest increase in puts at the 2800 level.

From the gamma exposure, the 3K position on the 26th shows a clear positive gamma, with a huge gamma distribution set to expire on the 26th, indicating strong upward resistance; a rebound may be easier after the 26th.

Additionally, FLY data has also been highly volatile recently, making shorting volatility at highs a good choice. Currently, the trend indicates that there will not be strong impacts from violent ups and downs in the short term, with the negative gamma area significantly reduced, and OI is also centered around the strike price.

From a strategic perspective, we can continue to implement medium- to long-term butterfly spreads. Those who want to bet on changes in this week's CPI can also try a calendar strategy of buying short-dated and selling long-dated options.

In bear market trading, it’s best to use combination strategies to mitigate unilateral risk, manage position sizes well, and avoid reckless moves.

Wishing everyone to be friends with time and open positions steadily~