Hello everyone, I’m Qi He, a cryptocurrency blogger who likes to break down complex market situations and explain them to you in plain language. Tonight, the market atmosphere is a bit strange; two charts are in front of me: one is the late-night news from "The Fed's mouthpiece," and the other is the 4-hour K-line chart of BTC. Many friends are asking whether to keep pushing forward or to turn back and crash. Don’t rush; let me clarify this for you.
In terms of news, is it 'good' or 'bad'?
"The Fed's mouthpiece" says that unemployment has risen, but there may not be a rush to cut interest rates in January. Many newcomers see 'no rate cut' and panic, thinking it's bad news. But take a closer look: rising unemployment indicates the economy is cooling down, and Powell has already warned about this. This actually confirms that the general direction of cutting rates is correct; it's just a matter of timing. Market expectations for a rate cut in January have risen from 24% to 31%, indicating that smart money is betting that easing will eventually come. This is a support for risk assets like BTC, not a knife in the back. So, don’t scare yourself; the news isn’t all bad!
On the technical front, the 'trump cards' of both bulls and bears have been revealed!
Looking at the chart provided by Qi He, the price is stuck around 87720, like it's gasping for air. Above, 89000 looks like an iron cap, and above that 90000 is a massive mountain. Below, 86000 is a key step, and 83800 is the lifeline. The subtlety of the current situation lies in the MACD: the white and yellow lines are below the 0-axis but have already crossed! This indicates that the downward momentum is weakening, and the bullish flame is accumulating. However, remember! Below the 0-axis is a 'patient', and the golden cross is merely a sign of 'improvement'; to truly stand up, it must return above the 0-axis, which requires time and energy. So, can we violently break through 89000 tonight? The difficulty is a bit high.
What should players do now?
If you are in cash/ light positions: Don't chase the highs! Around 86000-86500, you can place some orders in batches to build a small position first.
If you already have a position: If the price is near 89000 and can't go up, you can reduce a bit of your position to lock in some profits, leaving the rest to aim higher.
The most important thing: Regardless of bullish or bearish, you must set stop losses!
Qi He's personal opinion:
Tonight, it is more likely to be a high-level fluctuation, going up first and then down. The bulls will try to test the resistance at 89000 with the momentum from the MACD golden cross, probing a bit, or even a false breakout. But if there is no huge trading volume and new positive stimuli, it can easily surge and then fall back. The first stop for the pullback is the key defense level of 86000. As long as 86000 can hold, the market will still maintain a healthy upward fluctuation structure.
I am Qi He from the cryptocurrency circle. Follow me, and I will teach you how to seize this market and catch every fish! If you don't know how to time your entries, Qi He will analyze in real-time in the village, providing the best entry points. Follow Qi He, + chat room to help you avoid pitfalls, and provide timely breakdowns of subsequent capital movements, seizing every profitable window!
