12.17 XAG Intraday
In the industrial sector, there is an explosive demand for silver in photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and AI computing servers. By 2025, the global silver supply-demand gap is expected to reach 3659 tons (the highest in five years). COMEX silver inventories continue to deplete to historical lows. In the financial sector, expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut are increasing, and the dollar is weakening. Coupled with a surge in net inflows into silver ETFs and adjustments in inventory by Middle Eastern central banks leading to short covering, these factors collectively push up the central price of silver. Although there is a short-term profit-taking due to the doubling of prices within the year, the medium to long-term bullish trend remains unchanged, and the pullback is merely a consolidation for bulls, so buying on dips is advisable.
64.0 is a good entry point, as it aligns with the "lower edge of the 4-hour rising channel + near the 5-day moving average + Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level," creating a triple resonance point. When the silver price retraced to this area yesterday, the 1-hour RSI remained at 59.559 (not entering the oversold zone), and the volume was only 28% of the previous day's volume, indicating that selling pressure has exhausted and buying strength is strong. Entering with light positions can rely on channel support to reduce short-term volatility risk.
63.7 is a good level to add positions, corresponding to the core support of the 5-day moving average + strong support above the daily pivot point, and also the central point of the previous consolidation platform. Adding positions requires meeting two conditions: first, the price must not quickly break below 63.7 after falling to that level, and second, the 4-hour MACD must remain above the zero line (not crossing down). At this point, adding positions can further lower the cost of holding.
Defensive level at 63.4, this point is the "turning point of the trend" — closely adjacent to the daily level rising trend line (formed by connecting the December lows), and is above the key defensive level of the previous low at 63.28. If it breaks below 63.4, it means the structure of the 4-hour rising channel has failed, and the bullish arrangement of daily moving averages may be broken; at that time, one should decisively exit the market.
Targeting 66-68
(Enter at 64, add at 63.7, defend at 63.4, target 66-68)
Personal opinion, not to be considered as investment advice
