Family, it seems that the crypto circle will collectively 'stay up all night watching' the U.S. non-farm employment data, a 'ticking time bomb' that is about to explode! Here’s a heart-wrenching data point: right now, the market is betting on less than 25% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January, while nearly 76% of funds are betting on 'interest rates remaining unchanged.'
Don't think of this as just a cold number; after eight years in the industry, I dare say this thing is more important than the candlesticks of your holdings. It serves as an 'emotional thermometer' for institutional investors, clearly revealing their true thoughts about the future market.
Why is this probability worth our attention? The core reason is simple: mainstream funds do not believe that the Federal Reserve will rush to loosen monetary policy in January. Think about it, the big players who can mobilize billions of dollars understand the real state of the economy better than we do. Their willingness to bet more than 70% of their chips on 'no rate cut' indicates that, in their eyes, the economy has not yet reached a point where 'the Federal Reserve needs to step in' and the inflation 'tiger' has not truly been subdued.
This is completely contrary to the intuition of many retail investors. I receive messages every day in the background, with someone saying, 'Since the economy is like this, the Federal Reserve will definitely have to cut interest rates to save the market; let’s hurry up and go all in waiting for the rise'. But market pricing never lies; the big players vote with real money: 'Don’t rush, wait and see'.
This is not something I made up; recently the 'hawkish statements' from those Federal Reserve officials have already shown signs. On one hand, they say that interest rate cuts may be possible in the future, while on the other hand, they keep 'pouring cold water' on the market, repeatedly saying: 'The battle against inflation is not over yet; whether to cut interest rates depends on the data'. And tonight's non-farm data is the 'most critical card' in their mouths.
As an analyst dealing with data every day, I have clearly sorted out three possible outcomes and corresponding strategies for everyone, so just watch accordingly tonight:
First type: the data is extremely strong, for example, the number of new jobs far exceeds the expected 40,000, and the unemployment rate is below 4.4%.
Then we must be prepared for 'short-term pressure'. This is equivalent to directly pouring a bucket of cold water on the market: 'The economy is still hot; it’s too early to talk about interest rate cuts'. At that time, the probability of 'no interest rate cut' may soar to over 90%, and when the dollar strengthens, capital will definitely withdraw from high-risk markets. We should not move our chips around; don’t panic and cut losses just because of a drop, first see if the support level can hold, if it can’t hold, then it’s not too late to reduce positions.
Second type: the data is extremely weak, employment growth has stopped, and there may even be negative growth, while the unemployment rate keeps rising.
Such a situation can cause the market to 'change its face' instantly, and the probability of interest rate cuts may double directly. In the short term, there will definitely be a wave of capital rushing in to speculate on 'interest rate cut expectations', and our positions may rebound accordingly. But I must pour a bucket of cold water: if the data is really this bad, it means the economy may really be 'in big trouble'. When 'recession panic' arises, the rebound is likely to be 'short-lived', so don’t chase the highs; instead, you can take advantage of the rebound to adjust your positions to be more stable.
Third type: the data is average, neither exceeding expectations nor blowing up, just fluctuating slightly within the expected range.
The market is likely to continue to 'grind', maintaining the current oscillation pattern. Because the data has not given a clear signal, it has neither shattered hopes for interest rate cuts nor triggered fears of recession. At such times, don't make blind moves; capital will turn to wait for next week's Federal Reserve meeting minutes and subsequent inflation data, we can just wait with them, during the oscillation period, 'less action and more observation' is always the truth.
To speak from the heart, seeing the 76% probability of 'no interest rate cut', I have been advising my friends around me recently to 'not be too aggressive'. Behind this number is the awakening of mainstream capital; they have not been fooled by a few 'soft words' from the Federal Reserve and are more aware that fighting inflation is a 'protracted battle', not something that can be solved with a few doses of 'interest rate cut stimulants'.
Tonight's non-farm payroll night is destined to be 'some are happy, some are worried'. I have already laid out the core logic and response strategies, so when everyone is watching the market, don't be swayed by short-term fluctuations. If you find this analysis useful, hurry up and follow @男神讲趋势 #BinanceABCs $BTC .
