Don't keep staring at the K-line and making wild guesses! Variables that are more volatile than Bitcoin have surfaced, and Trump personally 'spoiled' it. Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Walsh is very likely to take over from Powell. Once this news broke, his election probability in the prediction market skyrocketed to the front row, and seasoned players are adjusting their strategies overnight. After all, if this person comes to power, the cryptocurrency game might really have to start over.
As an analyst who has been tracking Federal Reserve policy for five years, let me clarify Walsh's 'core cards' for everyone; these two points directly determine the flow of funds for the next six months:
The first tactic is 'contradictory operations': cutting interest rates while reducing the balance sheet. In simple terms, it means 'opening the floodgates while tightening the faucet'. Deutsche Bank's latest research report makes it clear that he wants to support the economy by cutting interest rates, but at the same time, he intends to sell off the Federal Reserve's massive assets. This operation sounds convoluted? But essentially it is 'precisely controlling the water flow'; don't expect a continuous influx of cheap money like before; every bit of new liquidity may come with an 'expiration date'.
The second point is even more crucial: consider inflation as the Federal Reserve's 'responsibility'. He has publicly stated that soaring prices are not a supply chain issue, but rather due to the Federal Reserve printing money without restraint. This means that after he takes office, he will prioritize 'controlling inflation' as a top priority, much harsher than Powell. As long as the CPI data rises slightly, he is very likely to hit the brakes immediately; the speed of policy turning may be faster than the liquidation of contracts.
Speaking of this, there are surely friends eager to ask: is this good or bad for our holdings? My judgment is 'short-term sweet jujubes, long-term thunder'; don't be deceived by surface signals.
In the short term, the phrase 'interest rate cut' itself is an emotional stimulant. As long as the market confirms his election, funds will definitely surge first; mainstream coins may see a round of rebounds, and even some hot sectors can enjoy short-term dividends. But remember, this wave of price increase is more like a pulse caused by 'policy expectation disparity', not the starting point of a trend-setting bull market.
What we should really be wary of is the long-term trend. Walsh is inherently a 'hawkish hardliner', who dislikes unchecked monetary easing and has more determination to reduce the balance sheet than anyone else. This means that the liquidity in the market will gradually tighten, and we won't see the kind of 'flooding' typical of the previous quantitative easing era. Even more critically, he has a 'zero tolerance' for inflation; once the policy shifts to tightening, funds in the market will flee faster than rabbits, and retail investors chasing highs may find themselves stuck at the top.
Based on this judgment, I have three 'life-saving suggestions' for everyone, especially for new players; be sure to write them down in your notebooks:
First, don't be blinded by the 'interest rate cut'; quickly reduce high leverage. The lesson from yesterday's 170,000 liquidations across the network is still fresh. Walsh's 'cutting interest rates while reducing the balance sheet' will greatly increase market volatility, and both longs and shorts will suffer; the higher the leverage, the quicker the downfall. My strategy is to reduce leverage to within 1x, or even operate purely in spot trading, prioritizing stability.
Second, keep a close eye on 'real liquidity'; don't trust slogans. Don't just listen to the news about interest rate cuts; look at actual fund movements: are stablecoins genuinely increasing in issuance? Is there sustained net inflow of funds on-chain? Has the trading volume of spot transactions on exchanges increased? If it's just a loud slogan with no real funds entering the market, then this wave of market activity is just 'a castle in the air', rising quickly and falling even faster.
Third, hold onto spot assets and steer clear of contracts. During sensitive moments such as the Federal Reserve's leadership change, the most reliable action is to 'hold onto core chips'. Even if spot trading experiences short-term fluctuations, as long as the chosen assets are valuable, they can weather the cycle; however, contracts in this stage of policy reversal can be forcibly liquidated with just one news item, which is purely a gamble.
Finally, let me say something from the heart: the crypto world has always been 'policies determine direction, funds determine ups and downs'. Now that the captain of the Federal Reserve is about to change, it's like a ship changing its captain, and the upcoming voyage will undoubtedly face storms. What we can do is not to predict every fluctuation, but to prepare our response strategies — patiently wait for real trend signals; either don't act, or be precise and steady when we do.
I have organized Walsh's policy trajectory and corresponding operational strategies into a table, and I will synchronize real-time fund data and cutting prevention guidelines in our circle every day. Follow me@Square-Creator-0a44f19a1d7d9 #美联储降息 $BTC
