#原油 12.17 PM Crude Oil Strategy
The dual bearish factors of oversupply concerns and the Russia-Ukraine peace talks are the core suppression, with the rebound at the opening only stemming from short sellers taking profits and short-term boosts from interest rate cut expectations. The fundamentals of rising inventory and the waning geopolitical risk premium still lean toward bearish, without changing the overall downward logic;
The 2.59% daily decline confirms the strength of the bears. After breaking below the lower edge of the consolidation box on the technical chart, the possibility of a short-term accelerated decline remains, and the current price rebound at 55.882 is a correction within the trend, without breaking through key resistance, the downward trend remains unchanged;
The hourly chart indicators show weak funding support around 55.88, with the MACD forming a golden cross below the zero line while the red bars shrink, and the MA moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, exerting pressure on prices, confirming insufficient rebound momentum, with a return to the downward trend expected.
Trading suggestion: Light short positions near 56.0-56.2
Stop loss: 56.5
Target: 55.5, 55.0
