The US dollar is continuously devaluing, gold is rising steadily, theoretically 2026 should be a bull market. However, the large-scale indicators for BTC point to a downtrend, and this indicator will never lie, just like from the end of 2021 to January 2022, after BTC reached a peak of 69000, it still maintained fluctuations above 50,000. Many people still saw the bull market continuing, but when February arrived, the sudden outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war accelerated the main downtrend, leading to a halving, followed by a rebound recovering 0.618, and then another halving, and again a rebound recovering 0.618. Why did the Russia-Ukraine war happen to break out just in February 2022? This is definitely a deliberately scheduled timing. After all, the four-year bear-bull cycle has already indicated that 2022 is the global bear market, and the death cross on the BTC monthly chart had already formed in November 2021. This big trend has already indicated that the following trend will be downward. Therefore, many negative factors are currently potential and unknown, and should not be taken lightly. It is better to believe that it is a bear market (after all, it does not have the characteristics of a bull market), being conservative is much better than blindly charging ahead.