Technical Observations
* Price Structure: $ONDO is currently trading at $0.4068. The chart shows a clear downward trend over the last two weeks, with the price recently finding local support near $0.3987.
* Moving Averages (4h Chart):
* MA(7) - Yellow: At $0.4130. The price is trading below this short-term average, which is now acting as immediate resistance.
* MA(25) - Pink: At $0.4345. This represents the medium-term downward slope the price must break to shift sentiment.
* MA(99) - Purple: At $0.4678. The wide gap between the current price and the long-term MA indicates that ONDO is currently in a strong bearish phase on this timeframe.
* Indicators & Momentum: * The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 32, which is approaching "oversold" territory. This often precedes a short-term relief bounce, though a full trend reversal requires more volume.
* Daily indicators show a "strong sell" consensus due to the price remaining below all major EMAs (50, 100, and 200).
Market Context (December 2025)
Despite the bearish chart, the project’s fundamentals remain active. Ondo Finance recently partnered with State Street and Galaxy Asset Management for a new tokenized liquidity fund. However, the market is still digesting the supply impact of a major token unlock that occurred in late 2025, which has historically put downward pressure on the price.
Prediction: The Next Move
Scenario A: Bullish Relief Bounce (45% Probability)
Given that the RSI is nearing oversold levels and the price is holding the $0.40 psychological support, a relief rally is possible.
* Target: A bounce would first target $0.4130 (MA7). If volume increases, a retest of $0.4500 (where heavy resistance sits) could occur before the end of the week.
Scenario B: Bearish Continuation (55% Probability)
If the price fails to reclaim $0.4130 and breaks below the recent low of $0.3987, the bearish trend will likely accelerate.
* Target: The next major technical floor is at the Fibonacci support near $0.34.
Key Levels Summary
| Level Type | Price Point | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Immediate Resistance | $0.4130 | Short-term hurdle to stop the decline. |
| Major Resistance | $0.4500 | Critical level needed for a bullish trend shift. |
| Current Support | $0.3987 | Recent local bottom; must hold to avoid a crash. |
| Macro Floor | $0.3400 | The "last line of defense" on the daily/macro timeframe.
