In December 2025, ETH remains in a phase of high volatility — short-term pressure and consolidation, but fundamental drivers (Fusaka upgrade, institutional flows, and decreasing liquid supply) create the conditions for growth in 2026.
Current market picture
At the end of November - early December 2025, a significant correction was observed: volatility increased due to macro factors and profit taking, while daily charts maintain support levels and signs of buyer protection, but short-term dynamics remain uncertain. Key technical levels now are support around several thousand dollars and resistance around $4,000–4,500; a breakout above this range could trigger a stronger rally.
Fundamental Growth Drivers
The main positive is the upgrade of Fusaka and plans to increase L1 throughput, which should reduce the cost of blob data for rollups and increase network capacity, improving L2 economics and lowering fees for users. Analysts and aggregators note that the successful implementation of these improvements increases the likelihood of a significant rise in demand for ETH in 2026.
Institutional Factors and Supply
The emergence of products like staking ETFs and the influx of institutional capital can create additional demand, while the accumulation of large addresses and the decrease in volumes on exchanges create a shortage of liquid supply — this is a positive factor for the price in the medium term. At the same time, possible centralization of staking and related risks for the distribution of power in the network are present.
Key Risks
Short-term risks include macroeconomic uncertainty, outflows from ETFs, sell-the-news after upgrades, and technical issues during the implementation of Fusaka; in the short term, this may pressure the price and intensify corrections. There are also operational and centralization risks with a sharp increase in node requirements, which are being discussed in the community and analytical reviews.
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Practical Conclusions and Recommendations
- If you are an investor with a 1–3 year horizon, holding part of your portfolio in ETH and using DCA helps reduce entry volatility; keep an eye on the implementation of Fusaka and on-chain metrics (exchange flows, whale accumulation).
- If you are a trader, consider potential 'sell-the-news' movements around the upgrade and key macro events; work with risk management and stop-losses.
- For developers and validators, it is important to monitor changes in gas costs and node requirements, optimize contracts for new transaction prices, and prepare for increased L2 load.
