Bitcoin is currently hovering at a level that is much more significant than the headline price. Analysts are highlighting the Real Market Average Price (RMAP), which is the on-chain average cost for non-mining investors, as the main determinant for the leading cryptocurrency.
According to CryptoQuant, this level has become a psychological and structural breaking point. It serves as a threshold for testing whether investors' confidence is strong enough to meet supply or if trust is starting to wane.
In Bitcoin's 'Price of Faith': $81,500 is Testing Market Stability
On-chain indicators show that the market is currently going through mid-cycle stress, technical resistance is still suppressing upward movements, and there is a serious divergence of opinion among experts. Ultimately, a fragile balance emerges between these two groups:
Long-term investors are trying to protect their costs and
Sellers are increasingly open to harmless exit opportunities.
In this environment, TMMP becomes a crossroads for Bitcoin. TMMP is not just a technical indicator. It is also a cornerstone of collective psychology: an important anchor showing at what average price investors entered the market.
While Bitcoin is trading at this level, investors are caught in a dilemma: Should they face uncertainty and continue to hold, or should they sell at the breakeven point? This moment of decision increases pressure in the market and generally prepares the ground for the next sharp move.
CryptoQuant analyst Moreno indicates the TMMP level at $81,500 and states that the majority of the real capital entering the market is positioned at this level.
In the past, Bitcoin trading above this level triggered buying and accumulation behaviors. However, when this level is lost, the same area becomes resistance this time with attempts to exit by investors from their average cost. This dynamic is back on stage now.
Moreno explains: ‘If BTC is trading above this level, investors are generally comfortable… When the price falls below this level, the same level often turns into resistance; because those who buy at average cost attempt to exit during rallies,’ he said.
The current test around $81,500 brings investors back to that classic dilemma: Should they continue to hold despite uncertainty or sell at breakeven?
It is clearly seen how decisive this region has been in past cycles. During the 2020–2021 bull market, TMMP provided support repeatedly. In 2022, however, as trust eroded, it became resistance this time. The role it will play going forward seems likely to determine Bitcoin's short-term direction.
The AVIV Ratio, which strengthens the behavioral aspect of the table, stands out as a metric comparing the on-chain active market value with the realized value, particularly focusing on investor profitability. Unlike momentum indicators, AVIV reflects investor sentiment based on realized profits.
Currently, AVIV is compressing towards the 0.8–0.9 band, and this level historically signals the transitions of mid-cycles, meaning periods where the markets do not experience a severe crash but also do not make a sharp directional determination.
CryptoQuant analyst shared this view: ‘If Bitcoin stays above TMMP ($81,500) and AVIV stabilizes around 0.8–0.9, it means investors are absorbing supply and defending their cost bases. If the price dips below TMMP and AVIV continues to compress, profitability decreases, and confidence weakens,’ he said.
In such environments, ‘weak hands’ are generally washed out of the market not by big drops, but by prolonged stagnation. Those who run out of patience abandon ship, while those who endure are rewarded.
As unrealized profits erode, the determination of investors is quietly being tested, and either a new accumulation phase begins, or the search for demand deepens. The term ‘tightrope’ is tailor-made for this situation.
Technical Resistance Increases Cryptocurrency Market Stagnation: Macro Concerns Deepen the Discussion
So far, Bitcoin's price movement has not allowed investors to breathe. Bitcoin, which has failed to stay above the annual opening level several times, has increasingly pushed momentum traders and technical followers into indecision.
The inability to permanently reclaim this level has strengthened the perception that the potential for upward movement is limited in the short term.
This technical compression actually reflects the larger ideological divide in the market. Experienced investors affected by the 70% pullback following the 2021 peak are now approaching technical signals and cycle analysis with much greater sensitivity.
‘Why isn’t Bitcoin pumping? Because 50% is selling (OGs traumatized by 2021, technical investors looking at the Relative Strength Index (RSI), 4-year cycle supporters expect a 2-year bear market post-halving) while the other 50% is buying (fundamental investors, TradFi, banks). An epic battle… This will continue until sellers run out of powder,’ analyst PlanB wrote.
Institutional players and traditional finance circles do not seem to be bothered by short-term cycles. This stable accumulation has helped absorb supply but has not yet been enough to push the market out of its narrow band.
Another development increasing uncertainty: Macro analyst Luke Gromen recently announced that he sold a large portion of his Bitcoin position when it was around $95,000. Gromen cited long-term technical weaknesses and systemic risks as reasons.
This move shared through Swan Bitcoin's No Second Best podcast further strengthened the downward narrative while investor profitability is already under pressure.
Gromen pointed to the weakening of long-term momentum, Bitcoin's inability to make new highs against gold, and the overall fragility in the market as we approach 2026.
Although Swan's hosts may not agree with this interpretation, the decision to sell resonated among investors watching the weakening of determination, especially at critical supports.
The exits of famous figures, especially when prices are compressing and on-chain indicators signal declining profits, significantly increase psychological pressure.
Will the Faith Boundary Hold?
Bitcoin is now at a crossroads shaped by determination rather than expectation. If the price stays above $81,500 and the AVIV ratio stabilizes, it means that investors are still defending their cost bases. This is essential for the continuation of the trend.
Failure could be costly. If a clear break occurs below TMMP and further compression happens in AVIV, it will signal that mere faith is no longer enough. Such a step could force the market to search for buyers at lower levels.
