Odaily Planet Daily reported that research and brokerage firm K33 stated in a report released yesterday that the selling pressure from long-term Bitcoin holders is nearing a saturation stage after years of distribution, and the on-chain selling pressure is expected to gradually ease.
K33 research director Vetle Lunde pointed out that since 2024, the supply of Bitcoin held for more than two years has continued to decline, with approximately 1.6 million BTC reactivated and flowing into the market, valued at about $138 billion at current prices, reflecting the ongoing on-chain sales by early holders. Lunde believes that this scale has clearly exceeded what can be explained by technical migration or structural adjustments, indicating substantial distribution behavior.
The report states that 2024 and 2025 will become the second and third highest years for the long-term supply of Bitcoin to be re-circulated in history, second only to 2017. Unlike the distribution cycle back then, which was driven by ICOs, altcoin trading, and incentive mechanisms, this round of selling is more about long-term holders directly realizing liquidity gains to meet the demands of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs and corporate financial needs.
Looking ahead, K33 expects the selling pressure to gradually ease. Lunde noted that about 20% of Bitcoin supply has been reactivated over the past two years, and on-chain selling pressure is expected to approach saturation. The supply of Bitcoin held for more than two years may end the current downtrend in 2026 and be above the current level of approximately 12,160,000 BTC. Additionally, K33 pointed out the potential asset allocation rebalancing effect that may occur at the end of the quarter and the beginning of the new quarter. Given that Bitcoin has significantly underperformed other assets in the fourth quarter, funds with fixed allocation ratios being reallocated at the end of the year and early next year may bring a phase of capital inflow to the market.
