Hello everyone, I am Zhang Tianshi. This morning, when I opened the market software, the 4-hour chart of SOL directly caught my attention: the head and shoulders bottom pattern has been solidified, with the left shoulder at 123.62, the head rebounding after probing the bottom, and the right shoulder just completed. Now it just needs the final push to 'break through the neck line'. But it's not enough to just look at the K-line; the news in the circle today is the real 'catalyst'—let's discuss it in detail.
First, let's look at today's 'ammunition': the Chicago Mercantile Exchange officially announced the launch of SOL spot futures contracts this morning, and Charles Schwab also opened the SOL futures trading channel simultaneously. The actions of these two institutions are equivalent to giving SOL a 'compliance label'. Remember the wave with ETH on CME in 2021? It directly drove the coin price from 2000 to 4000. Institutional money has always come when it 'smells compliance'. What's even more ruthless is that the Hong Kong stock company has a strategy; yesterday it just smashed 2.44 million Hong Kong dollars to buy 2440 SOL. Combined with previous positions, now they are holding 12,000 coins—what they are buying is not just coins, but 'tickets to the Solana ecosystem'. This signal is quite clear, right?
Returning to the K-line itself, I give this head and shoulders bottom an 8 out of 10: the MACD has stuck below the zero line for three days, and today it finally shows signs of 'lifting its head'. The KDJ golden cross is almost hitting 60, and the RSI has climbed back above 50 from the oversold zone — these three indicators together are like three brothers shouting, 'Get ready to charge.' But I have to pour a bit of cold water on this: the market is currently in a divided situation of 'institutions testing, retail investors catching the falling knife'. This morning, the selling pressure at the 128 level was clearly large holders cashing out on the rebound profits from the past few days. If this wave cannot break 130 with volume, it is very likely to test the right shoulder low point at 126.
For example, last November SOL also followed a similar head and shoulders bottom pattern. At that time, Coinbase launched the SOL ETF, but due to a lack of volume, it consolidated for three days before dropping 15 points. But today is different — the Solana ecosystem just released a 'big bomb' at the Abu Dhabi conference: Jupiter's stablecoin JupUSD will go live next week, and Bhutan today issued the gold-pegged TER token. These are all 'real ecological increments', unlike last year when there were only announcements without follow-through.
So my viewpoint is very clear: today is the 'window period for light positions'. Keep your position under 30%, set a stop loss at 125, and if it breaks 130, add another 20% — institutional money has started to come in and sweep up, so joining in a bit isn't being greedy.
Lastly, let me say something heartfelt: in the crypto world these past few years, I've seen too many people fall for 'waiting for the lowest point'. The current shape of SOL + favorable news is just like ETH in 2020 — at that time, no one believed it could break 1000. What about now? If it can stabilize above 130 before midnight, it is highly likely to directly touch 135 tomorrow; if it drops, it will be a good opportunity to add to positions.
A twelve-year journey in finance, an exclusive manual from a pioneer in the crypto circle: insight into the market, steady progress. Pay attention to how the Tian Shi Fu teaches you to steadily increase value; risks and opportunities coexist in investment. Blind operations are a big taboo in the crypto world!
